Prediction accuracy leaderboard

Ranked by walk-forward prediction accuracy (AUC): how well the model calls this investor's next new buy, out of sample. This is not a return ranking. AUC 0.50 is a coin flip; higher is better. Samples are small and every per-investor edge is noisy and not statistically significant. Research, not advice.

Every other smart-money tracker ranks realised returns. This ranks something only a prediction model can: how well the next new buy is called before it files. As of 2026-06-30. 31 followed investors.

#	Investor	Predict AUC	Beat index	Quarters	Top predicted buy
1	Two Sigma Two Sigma	0.775	53%	34	BIGGQ 71%
2	Bill Nygren Oakmark	0.737	44%	34	DSI 98%
3	Joel Greenblatt Gotham	0.726	32%	34	PJX 36%
4	Prem Watsa Fairfax	0.696	35%	34	WBD 93%
5	Larry Robbins Glenview	0.670	32%	34	AKAM 93%
6	Andreas Halvorsen Viking Global	0.669	62%	34	HAS 92%
7	George Soros Soros Fund Mgmt	0.663	50%	34	CON 99%
8	Lee Ainslie Maverick	0.659	41%	34	EXEEZ 98%
9	Chase Coleman Tiger Global	0.647	44%	34	XNDU 99%
10	Seth Klarman Baupost	0.647	38%	34	V 92%
11	Stephen Mandel Lone Pine	0.644	38%	34	TER 98%
12	Bruce Berkowitz Fairholme	0.632	41%	34	AWM 97%
13	Howard Marks Oaktree	0.626	44%	34	BILI 91%
14	Philippe Laffont Coatue	0.615	41%	34	SOLS 81%
15	Brad Gerstner Altimeter	0.612	35%	34	DNB 98%
16	Carl Icahn Icahn Capital	0.610	38%	34	FNSR 82%
17	Renaissance Technologies Renaissance Technologies	0.610	38%	34	BITA 5%
18	Chuck Akre Akre Capital	0.606	56%	34	NOW 99%
19	David Einhorn Greenlight	0.602	42%	26	ENR 91%
20	Ray Dalio Bridgewater	0.595	35%	34	GOOG 99%
21	Chris Bloomstran Semper Augustus	0.594	41%	34	BLDR 99%
22	Stanley Druckenmiller Duquesne	0.589	44%	34	RVMD 97%
23	Tom Russo Gardner Russo & Quinn	0.576	38%	34	SUNB 98%
24	Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway	0.575	44%	34	GOOG 97%
25	David Abrams Abrams Capital	0.562	26%	34	BID 47%
26	Francois Rochon Giverny	0.559	53%	34	SUNB 99%
27	David Tepper Appaloosa	0.537	53%	34	GKD 93%
28	Bill Ackman Pershing Square	0.532	35%	34	MSFT 92%
29	Daniel Loeb Third Point	0.530	47%	34	LITE 94%
30	Nelson Peltz Trian	0.481	44%	34	NSY 77%
31	Mohnish Pabrai Dalal Street	0.379	54%	24	PZZA 72%

Below the line: not followed

A few high-turnover market-makers (Citadel, Millennium, D. E. Shaw, Point72) score high AUC because their 13Fs are huge churning books that are easy to predict but say little about conviction. They are marked below the line and left out of the followed consensus for that reason.

Investor	Predict AUC	Quarters
D. E. Shaw D. E. Shaw	0.803	34
Izzy Englander Millennium	0.779	34
Ken Griffin Citadel	0.775	34
Steve Cohen Point72	0.620	34

AUC is out-of-sample walk-forward: each quarter is predicted using only earlier quarters. 0.50 is a coin flip. Beat-index is the share of backtested quarters the investor’s predicted top-10 beat the S&P 500 (gross, before costs). Samples are small and none of these per-investor edges is statistically significant. See how it works, calibration, and the methodology. Research, not investment advice.