🪞 David Tepper · Appaloosa
Distressed + tech-heavy.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for David Tepper · Appaloosa’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GKD | Grand Canyon Education Inc | 93% |
| 2 | GWPH | Gw Pharmaceuticals Ltd | 93% |
| 3 | BMY-R | Bristol-Myers Squibb-Cvr | 93% |
| 4 | IPHI | Inphi Corp | 93% |
| 5 | VSH | Vishay Intertechnology Inc | 93% |
| 6 | TTAN | Servicetitan Inc-A | 93% |
| 7 | SNDK | Sandisk Corp | 93% |
| 8 | CHGG | Chegg Inc | 81% |
| 9 | MXL | Maxlinear Inc | 81% |
| 10 | FRCB | First Republic Bank/Ca | 72% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of David Tepper · Appaloosa’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Deutsche Bk Ag | 0.13% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 67 |
| GLW | Corning Inc | 2.59% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 66 |
| BALL | Ball Corp | 0.83% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
| KWEB | Kraneshares Trust | 0.52% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
| JD | Jd.Com Inc | 0.65% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| LHX | L3Harris Technologies Inc | 1.15% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 60 |
| LYFT | Lyft Inc | 0.61% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| WHR | Whirlpool Corp | 1.77% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether David Tepper · Appaloosa reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 15.16% | ➕ Added |
| MU | Micron Technology Inc | 9.48% | ✊ Held |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 8.38% | ✊ Held |
| UBER | Uber Technologies Inc | 7.68% | ➕ Added |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac | 7.56% | ➕ Added |
| BABA | Alibaba Group Hldg Ltd | 7.33% | ➖ Trimmed |
| VST | Vistra Corp | 5.12% | ➕ Added |
| EWY | Ishares Inc | 4.98% | ➕ Added |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 4.33% | ➖ Trimmed |
| NRA | Nrg Energy Inc | 4.27% | ✊ Held |
| META | Meta Platforms Inc | 4.21% | ➖ Trimmed |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp | 3.01% | 🆕 New |
| GLW | Corning Inc | 2.59% | ➖ Trimmed |
| WHR | Whirlpool Corp | 1.77% | ➖ Trimmed |
| PDD | Pdd Holdings Inc | 1.55% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 31 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% | $197.60 |
| MU | $337.84 | $312–$461 | $984.75 | +191.5% | $368.60 |
| GOOG | $286.86 | $273–$344 | $353.81 | +23.3% | $275.13 |
| UBER | $71.93 | $69–$88 | $74.54 | +3.6% | $69.96 |
| TSM | $337.95 | $316–$386 | $420.39 | +24.4% | $308.11 |
| BABA | $125.46 | $121–$176 | $114.97 | -8.4% | $140.24 |
| VST | $150.33 | $142–$180 | $158.43 | +5.4% | $143.52 |
| EWY | $123.01 | $102–$151 | $162.54 | +32.1% | $120.91 |
| NVDA | $174.40 | $165–$195 | $207.40 | +18.9% | $156.02 |
| META | $572.13 | $525–$737 | $664.54 | +16.2% | $588.69 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
78% of David Tepper · Appaloosa’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (15 of 15 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.23.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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