🪞 Joel Greenblatt · Gotham
Magic-formula value, special situations.
Build a basket from the top picks →
🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Joel Greenblatt · Gotham’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PJX | Petroleo Brasil-Sp Pref Adr | 36% |
| 2 | FPI | Farmland Partners Inc | 36% |
| 3 | TQJ | Signature Bank | 36% |
| 4 | DIDIY | Didi Global Inc | 36% |
| 5 | HUYA | Huya Inc-Adr | 36% |
| 6 | SC | Santander Consumer Usa Holdi | 36% |
| 7 | AIZ | Assurant Inc | 36% |
| 8 | DENN | Denny'S Corp | 21% |
| 9 | TMCWW | Tmc The Metals Co Inc -Cw25I | 21% |
| 10 | MTD | Mettler-Toledo International | 21% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Joel Greenblatt · Gotham’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWB | Ishares Tr | 0.14% | added last Q | ▲▲▲ 71 |
| BOND | Pimco Etf Tr | 0.18% | added last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| BIL | Spdr Series Trust | 0.17% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 67 |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp | 0.20% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 67 |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc | 0.24% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
| NBIX | Neurocrine Biosciences Inc | 0.15% | added last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| SUX | Td Synnex Corporation | 0.16% | added last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| SGOV | Ishares Tr | 0.38% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Joel Greenblatt · Gotham reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | State Str Spdr S&P 500 Etf T | 17.94% | ➕ Added |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 2.23% | ➕ Added |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 2.21% | ➕ Added |
| GSPY | Tidal Trust I | 1.84% | ✊ Held |
| IVV | Ishares Tr | 0.87% | ✊ Held |
| VTV | Vanguard Index Fds | 0.52% | ➕ Added |
| VOO | Vanguard Index Fds | 0.51% | ➕ Added |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 0.50% | ➖ Trimmed |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 0.48% | ✊ Held |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc | 0.46% | ✊ Held |
| SGOV | Ishares Tr | 0.38% | ➖ Trimmed |
| IEFA | Ishares Tr | 0.36% | ➕ Added |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 0.35% | ✊ Held |
| IWV | Ishares Tr | 0.33% | 🆕 New |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 0.33% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 150 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $650.34 | $630–$692 | $749.17 | +15.2% |
| AAPL | $253.79 | $246–$278 | $333.74 | +31.5% |
| NVDA | $174.40 | $165–$195 | $207.40 | +18.9% |
| GSPY | $35.38 | $34–$38 | $40.72 | +15.1% |
| IVV | $653.21 | $633–$695 | $755.12 | +15.6% |
| VTV | $196.20 | $191–$205 | $219.44 | +11.8% |
| VOO | $597.55 | $579–$636 | $691.10 | +15.7% |
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% |
| GOOGL | $287.56 | $273–$343 | $346.77 | +20.6% |
| SNOW | $150.82 | $151–$235 | $262.09 | +73.8% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
98% of Joel Greenblatt · Gotham’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (15 of 15 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.07.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
🔔 Follow this mirror
New filings and predicted-buy refreshes are published to every reader at once, weekly digest (email) · build a basket.
Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.