🪞 Joel Greenblatt · Gotham
Magic-formula value, special situations.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Joel Greenblatt · Gotham’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BEPC | Brookfield Renewable Corp | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | WSO | Watsco Inc | 1.8% | 2.8x |
| 3 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 5 | DTE | Dte Energy Company | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 6 | HES | Hess Corp | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 7 | SNOW | Snowflake Inc | 1.4% | 2.2x |
| 8 | LHX | L3Harris Technologies Inc | 1.3% | 2.1x |
| 9 | PPL | Ppl Corp | 1.3% | 2.1x |
| 10 | FMC | Fmc Corp | 1.2% | 1.9x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Joel Greenblatt · Gotham’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUM | Humana Inc | 0.21% | added last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
| - | Highwoods Pptys Inc | 0.17% | added last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
| MCX | Mccormick & Co Inc | 0.13% | added last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| DASH | Doordash Inc | 0.14% | added last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| WDC | Western Digital Corp | 0.25% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| NEU | Newmarket Corp | 0.24% | added last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| IRDM | Iridium Communications Inc | 0.32% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| VNO | Vornado Rlty Tr | 0.18% | added last Q | ▲▲ 60 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Joel Greenblatt · Gotham reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | State Str Spdr S&P 500 Etf T | 19.80% | ➕ Added |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 1.93% | ✊ Held |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 1.87% | ✊ Held |
| GSPY | Tidal Trust I | 1.60% | ✊ Held |
| IVV | Ishares Tr | 0.78% | ✊ Held |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc | 0.61% | ✊ Held |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 0.47% | ✊ Held |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 0.46% | ✊ Held |
| VOO | Vanguard Index Fds | 0.46% | ✊ Held |
| VTV | Vanguard Index Fds | 0.44% | ✊ Held |
| SGOV | Ishares Tr | 0.37% | ➕ Added |
| MU | Micron Technology Inc | 0.34% | ➖ Trimmed |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp | 0.33% | ➖ Trimmed |
| IRDM | Iridium Communications Inc | 0.32% | ➖ Trimmed |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc | 0.31% | ➕ Added |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 150 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $746.77 | $649–$758 | $771.10 | +3.3% |
| AAPL | $289.36 | $253–$315 | $316.85 | +9.5% |
| NVDA | $200.09 | $174–$235 | $220.78 | +10.3% |
| GSPY | $40.60 | $35–$41 | $42.45 | +4.6% |
| IVV | $748.89 | $651–$761 | $774.75 | +3.5% |
| SNOW | $254.50 | $121–$280 | $329.11 | +29.3% |
| AMZN | $238.34 | $208–$275 | $259.77 | +9.0% |
| GOOGL | $357.37 | $287–$402 | $340.65 | -4.7% |
| VOO | $686.81 | $596–$696 | $708.75 | +3.2% |
| VTV | $217.93 | $195–$219 | $225.45 | +3.5% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
98% of Joel Greenblatt · Gotham’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (15 of 15 names, ~303 trading days). Market beta 1.09.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +2.2 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 35 complete quarters (2017Q3 to 2026Q1), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.3; 95% CI includes zero). Most of that average is one quarter: 2026Q1 posted a +47.5 pt edge, roughly half of it two AI-hardware names (SNDK +258%, AMD +186%) marked at what proved to be a local peak; excluding it the edge is +0.9 pts/quarter. Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.