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What the world's activists, and Congress, just bought
When a famous investor crosses a disclosure threshold, 5% in Japan, 3% in the UK, they must report it. When a member of the US Congress trades a stock, they must report that too. These are those filings: the most recent stakes and buys from the people worth watching, straight from the public record.
No forecast, no recommendation. Just what they bought, when, and how much. The same honesty rule as the rest of the site.
6083 disclosures · 3385 investors + members · Japan (EDINET) · UK (FCA) · Korea (DART) · US Congress (STOCK Act) · crypto (Arkham onchain) · prediction markets (Polymarket + Kalshi)
Japan, 411 new stakes
| Filed | Investor | Company | Stake |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | jp_大成建設株式会社 | 株式会社ニッピ | 7.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | SPARX Asset Management | 株式会社ユナイテッドアローズ | 5.0% |
| 2026-09-30 | jp_株式会社メディパルホールディングス | 株式会社レイヤード | 5.0% |
| 2026-09-28 | jp_大和ハウス工業株式会社 | 大和自動車交通株式会社 | 8.5% |
| 2026-09-28 | jp_住友商事株式会社 | ａｋｉｐｐａ株式会社 | 5.3% |
United Kingdom, 32 new stakes
| Filed | Investor | Company | Stake |
|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Asset Value Investors | RESIDENTIAL SECURE INCOME PLC | 6.0% |
| 2026-06-05 | Sand Grove Capital | BLUEFIELD SOLAR INCOME FUND LIMITED | 5.1% |
| 2026-05-28 | Causeway Capital | MELROSE INDUSTRIES PLC | 5.1% |
| 2026-05-13 | Silchester International | HOWDEN JOINERY GROUP PLC | 5.0% |
| 2026-04-10 | fundsmith | THE SAGE GROUP PLC. | 5.0% |
South Korea, 5374 new stakes
| Filed | Investor | Company | Stake |
|---|
| 2026-10-02 | kr_국민연금공단 | 한화손해보험 | 5.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | kr_AramcoDownStreamAsiaPte.Ltd. | S-Oil | 63.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | kr_임우석 | 창해에탄올 | 27.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | kr_국민연금공단 | DN오토모티브 | 7.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | kr_국민연금공단 | 미래에셋생명 | 5.0% |
United States. Congress · 266 recent buys
Members of Congress must disclose their trades within 45 days under the STOCK Act. These are the most recent purchases on the public record (last 120 days, 21 members). Amount is the midpoint of the disclosed dollar bracket.
| Traded | Member | Ticker | Amount |
|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Rick Larsen House | ADI | ~$8k |
| 2026-10-08 | Rick Larsen House | WSM | ~$8k |
| 2026-10-01 | Gilbert Cisneros House | BHE | ~$32k |
| 2026-09-30 | Lisa McClain House | HANTZ | ~$8k |
| 2026-09-30 | Lisa McClain House | IBRX | ~$8k |
Prediction markets, what the crowd is pricing
Live odds from two prediction markets. Polymarket (global, on-chain) and Kalshi (US, CFTC-regulated). These are the crowd's current prices on open questions: the market's implied probability, not a Prior Moves forecast. Where real money is betting, as of 2026-10-16.
Politics
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| Brazil Presidential Election - Flávio Bolsonaro | 78% | $1.8M | 2026-10-05 |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026? - 340-359 | 66% | $1.2M | 2026-10-16 |
| Next French Presidential Election - Marine Le Pen | 46% | $972k | 2027-04-19 |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms - Democrats Sweep | 62% | $546k | 2026-11-04 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? - March 31 | 58% | $533k | 2027-04-01 |
Economics
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| Fed Decision in October? - No change | 86% | $2.7M | 2026-10-29 |
| Largest Company end of December 2026? - NVIDIA | 69% | $145k | 2027-01-01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 12% | $100k | 2027-01-01 |
| Fed Decision in December? - 25 bps increase | 78% | $93k | 2026-12-09 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | 78% | $64k | 2026-12-10 |
Geopolitics
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? - Gadi Eizenkot | 47% | $274k | 2026-10-28 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 16% | $265k | 2027-01-01 |
| Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? - No Hormuz Agreement | 94% | $225k | 2026-11-04 |
| Iran leadership change by...? - June 30, 2027 | 24% | $158k | 2027-07-01 |
| Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? - December 31 | 39% | $132k | 2027-01-01 |
Tech & Science
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | 96% | $257k | 2026-10-16 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? - Google | 70% | $73k | 2026-10-31 |
| Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? - CXMT | 31% | $35k | 2027-07-01 |
| Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026? - Saudi Arabia | 16% | $21k | 2027-01-01 |
| Best AI model on October 19? - gemini-4-argon-high | 90% | $17k | 2026-10-20 |
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