🪞 Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway
Value, long-duration, quality businesses.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 4 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 5 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 6 | M | Macy'S Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 7 | FWONK | Liberty Media Corp-Formula-C | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 8 | MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 9 | VTS | Vitesse Energy Inc | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 10 | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange In | 1.4% | 2.3x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHI | D R Horton Inc | 0.00% | just entered | ▲▲ 62 |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 0.14% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| COF | Capital One Finl Corp | 0.20% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 54 |
| M | Macys Inc | 0.06% | added last Q | · 49 |
| LEN | Lennar Corp | 0.40% | added last Q | · 48 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 22.04% | ✊ Held |
| AXP | American Express Co | 17.14% | ✊ Held |
| KO | Coca Cola Co | 10.86% | ✊ Held |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 9.41% | ➕ Added |
| BAC | Bank Of Amer Corp | 9.20% | ✊ Held |
| CHV | Chevron Corporation | 4.67% | ✊ Held |
| OXY | Occidental Pete Corp | 4.30% | ✊ Held |
| - | Chubb Limited | 3.90% | ✊ Held |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 3.73% | ✊ Held |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 3.21% | ➕ Added |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 2.57% | ✊ Held |
| TRL | Davita Inc | 2.15% | ✊ Held |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 1.79% | ➕ Added |
| SIRI | Siriusxm Holdings Inc | 1.23% | ✊ Held |
| VRSN | Verisign Inc | 0.76% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 29 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXP | $338.25 | $299–$342 | $330.17 | -2.4% | $291.15 |
| GOOGL | $357.37 | $287–$402 | $340.65 | -4.7% | $342.93 |
| AAPL | $289.36 | $253–$315 | $316.85 | +9.5% | $268.40 |
| KO | $81.27 | $74–$83 | $88.67 | +9.1% | $70.78 |
| BAC | $56.98 | $49–$58 | $61.94 | +8.7% | $49.59 |
| OXY | $48.57 | $49–$65 | $59.10 | +21.7% | $55.14 |
| GOOG | $353.33 | $287–$399 | $337.71 | -4.4% | $339.88 |
| KHC | $23.62 | $22–$24 | $25.13 | +6.4% | $20.79 |
| DAL | $93.66 | $65–$93 | $78.00 | -16.7% | $79.63 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
82% of Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (13 of 14 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 1.02.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +2.2 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 35 complete quarters (2017Q3 to 2026Q1), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.3; 95% CI includes zero). Most of that average is one quarter: 2026Q1 posted a +47.5 pt edge, roughly half of it two AI-hardware names (SNDK +258%, AMD +186%) marked at what proved to be a local peak; excluding it the edge is +0.9 pts/quarter. Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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