🪞 Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway
Value, long-duration, quality businesses.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOOG | Alphabet Inc-Cl C | 97% |
| 2 | M | Macy'S Inc | 95% |
| 3 | WAT | Waters Corp | 87% |
| 4 | DDD | 3D Systems Corp | 79% |
| 5 | TQJ | Signature Bank | 67% |
| 6 | PJX | Petroleo Brasil-Sp Pref Adr | 67% |
| 7 | SC | Santander Consumer Usa Holdi | 67% |
| 8 | AIZ | Assurant Inc | 67% |
| 9 | HUYA | Huya Inc-Adr | 67% |
| 10 | FPI | Farmland Partners Inc | 67% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Constellation Brands Inc | 0.04% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 66 |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 0.25% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| NYT | New York Times Co Mtn Be | 0.48% | added last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| LEN | Lennar Corp | 0.33% | added last Q | ▲ 55 |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 1.01% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 53 |
| M | Macys Inc | 0.02% | just entered | ▲ 51 |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 0.39% | just entered | ▲ 51 |
| CHV | Chevron Corporation | 6.64% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 50 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 21.99% | ✊ Held |
| AXP | American Express Co | 17.43% | ✊ Held |
| KO | Coca Cola Co | 11.56% | ✊ Held |
| BAC | Bank America Corp | 9.52% | ✊ Held |
| CHV | Chevron Corporation | 6.64% | ➖ Trimmed |
| OXY | Occidental Pete Corp | 6.55% | ✊ Held |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 5.93% | ➕ Added |
| - | Chubb Ltd Switz | 4.24% | ✊ Held |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 4.09% | ✊ Held |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 2.78% | ✊ Held |
| TRL | Davita Inc | 1.76% | ✊ Held |
| KR | Kroger Co | 1.38% | ✊ Held |
| SIRI | Siriusxm Holdings Inc | 1.09% | ✊ Held |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 1.01% | ➖ Trimmed |
| VRSN | Verisign Inc | 0.85% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 29 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXP | $302.48 | $291–$381 | $355.35 | +17.5% | $324.97 |
| KO | $76.05 | $67–$80 | $81.56 | +7.2% | $68.59 |
| AAPL | $253.79 | $246–$278 | $333.74 | +31.5% | $236.59 |
| OXY | $65.00 | $41–$66 | $53.77 | -17.3% | $56.19 |
| BAC | $48.75 | $46–$57 | $61.27 | +25.7% | $48.27 |
| GOOGL | $287.56 | $273–$343 | $346.77 | +20.6% | $292.53 |
| KHC | $22.49 | $21–$24 | $25.88 | +15.1% | $20.57 |
| DAL | $66.48 | $58–$75 | $84.17 | +26.6% | $63.72 |
| SIRI | $23.08 | $20–$23 | $30.42 | +31.8% | $19.47 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
81% of Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (13 of 14 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.98.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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