🪞 Chase Coleman · Tiger Global
Concentrated tech/growth (Tiger cub).
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Chase Coleman · Tiger Global’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PAYP | Paypay Corp | 1.8% | 2.8x |
| 2 | APLD | Applied Digital Corp | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 3 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 5 | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 6 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 7 | CIFR | Cipher Digital Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 8 | WLTH | Wealthfront Corp | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 9 | DIDIY | Didi Global Inc | 1.5% | 2.3x |
| 10 | MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc | 1.4% | 2.2x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Chase Coleman · Tiger Global’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 5.72% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| CHYM | Chime Finl Inc | 0.45% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
| GEV | Ge Vernova Inc | 3.91% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| PONY | Pony Ai Inc | 0.01% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 2.76% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 60 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 8.65% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| - | Space Exploration Techn Corp | 0.27% | just entered | ▲ 56 |
| - | Core Scientific Inc New | 0.09% | just entered | ▲ 53 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Chase Coleman · Tiger Global reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac | 9.72% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 9.62% | ✊ Held |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 9.34% | ✊ Held |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 8.65% | ➖ Trimmed |
| META | Meta Platforms Inc | 6.63% | ✊ Held |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 5.72% | ➖ Trimmed |
| SE | Sea Ltd | 5.02% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AMAT | Applied Matls Inc | 4.92% | ✊ Held |
| GEV | Ge Vernova Inc | 3.91% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 3.53% | ✊ Held |
| CPAY | Corpay Inc | 2.99% | ➕ Added |
| - | Cerebras Systems Inc | 2.76% | 🆕 New |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 2.76% | ➖ Trimmed |
| CPNG | Coupang Inc | 2.64% | ✊ Held |
| INTC | Intel Corp | 2.48% | ➕ Added |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 46 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | $477.57 | $337–$478 | $427.30 | -10.5% | $355.61 |
| AMZN | $238.34 | $208–$275 | $259.77 | +9.0% | $204.76 |
| NVDA | $200.09 | $174–$235 | $220.78 | +10.3% | $175.33 |
| GOOGL | $357.37 | $287–$402 | $340.65 | -4.7% | $299.62 |
| META | $563.29 | $543–$688 | $571.10 | +1.4% | $512.23 |
| LRCX | $433.33 | $214–$433 | $301.49 | -30.4% | $322.67 |
| SE | $95.83 | $81–$96 | $123.18 | +28.5% | $71.50 |
| AMAT | $723.00 | $341–$722 | $458.39 | -36.6% | $537.79 |
| GEV | $1174.86 | $867–$1175 | $953.83 | -18.8% | $874.83 |
| MSFT | $373.02 | $352–$460 | $505.06 | +35.4% | $342.27 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
86% of Chase Coleman · Tiger Global’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (14 of 14 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 1.38.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +2.2 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 35 complete quarters (2017Q3 to 2026Q1), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.3; 95% CI includes zero). Most of that average is one quarter: 2026Q1 posted a +47.5 pt edge, roughly half of it two AI-hardware names (SNDK +258%, AMD +186%) marked at what proved to be a local peak; excluding it the edge is +0.9 pts/quarter. Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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