🪞 Lee Ainslie · Maverick
Long-short (Tiger cub).
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Lee Ainslie · Maverick’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EXEEZ | Chesapeake Energy -Cw26 | 98% |
| 2 | UCTT | Ultra Clean Holdings Inc | 92% |
| 3 | LZ | Legalzoomcom Inc | 91% |
| 4 | CDTX | Cidara Therapeutics Inc | 91% |
| 5 | EXEEL | Chesapeake Energy Corp -Cw26 | 91% |
| 6 | EXE | Expand Energy Corp | 91% |
| 7 | HII | Huntington Ingalls Industrie | 90% |
| 8 | PCH | Potlatchdeltic Corp | 89% |
| 9 | ITGR | Integer Holdings Corp | 87% |
| 10 | WK | Workiva Inc | 86% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Lee Ainslie · Maverick’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Element Solutions Inc | 0.02% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 78 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology Inc | 0.21% | added last Q | ▲▲▲ 75 |
| - | Alcon Ag | 0.01% | added last Q | ▲▲▲ 74 |
| BNS | Bank Nova Scotia B C | 0.03% | added last Q | ▲▲▲ 74 |
| - | Hudbay Minerals Inc | 0.01% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 73 |
| PII | Polaris Inc | 0.01% | added last Q | ▲▲▲ 73 |
| CRL | Charles Riv Labs Intl Inc | 0.02% | added last Q | ▲▲▲ 72 |
| COTY | Coty Inc | 0.03% | added last Q | ▲▲▲ 72 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Lee Ainslie · Maverick reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 6.39% | ✊ Held |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 5.57% | ✊ Held |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac | 4.82% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Asml Hldg Nv | 3.94% | ✊ Held |
| BSX | Boston Scientific Corp | 3.76% | ➕ Added |
| - | Nu Hldgs Ltd | 3.72% | ➕ Added |
| AMAT | Applied Matls Inc | 3.43% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 3.10% | ➖ Trimmed |
| RTX | Rtx Corporation | 3.04% | ✊ Held |
| AGX | Argan Inc | 2.92% | ✊ Held |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 2.89% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TECH | Bio-Techne Corp | 2.86% | ➕ Added |
| V | Visa Inc | 2.81% | ✊ Held |
| NTRA | Natera Inc | 2.70% | ➕ Added |
| COF | Capital One Finl Corp | 2.63% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 150 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $174.40 | $165–$195 | $207.40 | +18.9% |
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% |
| TSM | $337.95 | $316–$386 | $420.39 | +24.4% |
| AMAT | $341.79 | $268–$394 | $560.93 | +64.1% |
| MSFT | $370.17 | $356–$481 | $385.10 | +4.0% |
| RTX | $192.90 | $184–$211 | $195.89 | +1.6% |
| BSX | $62.75 | $63–$99 | $42.63 | -32.1% |
| AGX | $544.65 | $309–$566 | $547.51 | +0.5% |
| GOOG | $286.86 | $273–$344 | $353.81 | +23.3% |
| TECH | $52.26 | $49–$71 | $72.12 | +38.0% |
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| BSX | calls | bullish / levered |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
88% of Lee Ainslie · Maverick’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (13 of 13 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.16.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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