🪞 Seth Klarman · Baupost
Deep value, special situations, defensive cash.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Seth Klarman · Baupost’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | V | Visa Inc-Class A Shares | 92% |
| 2 | DNOW | Dnow Inc | 89% |
| 3 | SE | Sea Ltd-Adr | 87% |
| 4 | ADT | Adt Inc | 87% |
| 5 | CPRT | Copart Inc | 86% |
| 6 | PCVX | Vaxcyte Inc | 86% |
| 7 | WST | West Pharmaceutical Services | 85% |
| 8 | MLCO | Melco Resorts & Entert-Adr | 85% |
| 9 | LW | Lamb Weston Holdings Inc | 85% |
| 10 | AAMI | Acadian Asset Management Inc | 85% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Seth Klarman · Baupost’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Liberty Global Ltd | 3.07% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 56 |
| EXP | Eagle Matls Inc | 3.31% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 55 |
| - | Willis Towers Watson Plc Ltd | 5.08% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 53 |
| DNOW | Dnow Inc | 0.84% | just entered | · 47 |
| - | Grupo Aeromexico Sab De Cv | 1.34% | held flat | · 46 |
| - | Norwegian Cruise Line Hldgs | 1.33% | just entered | · 46 |
| PCVX | Vaxcyte Inc | 0.91% | just entered | · 45 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Seth Klarman · Baupost reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 12.70% | ➕ Added |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands Intl Inc | 11.67% | ✊ Held |
| WCC | Wesco Intl Inc | 7.69% | ✊ Held |
| UNP | Union Pac Corp | 7.31% | ✊ Held |
| ELV | Elevance Health Inc Formerly | 7.30% | ✊ Held |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 6.62% | ✊ Held |
| FERG | Ferguson Enterprises Inc | 6.58% | ➕ Added |
| - | Willis Towers Watson Plc Ltd | 5.08% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Aon Plc | 4.85% | 🆕 New |
| V | Visa Inc | 4.14% | 🆕 New |
| TFX | Teleflex Incorporated | 3.73% | 🆕 New |
| EXP | Eagle Matls Inc | 3.31% | ➖ Trimmed |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | 3.08% | ✊ Held |
| - | Liberty Global Ltd | 3.07% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Herbalife Ltd | 2.66% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 22 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% |
| QSR | $73.91 | $65–$74 | $73.25 | -0.9% |
| WCC | $273.62 | $250–$314 | $335.02 | +22.4% |
| UNP | $242.62 | $219–$266 | $280.94 | +15.8% |
| ELV | $292.75 | $278–$378 | $425.17 | +45.2% |
| GOOG | $286.86 | $273–$344 | $353.81 | +23.3% |
| FERG | $233.26 | $217–$265 | $232.02 | -0.5% |
| V | $302.24 | $295–$356 | $348.97 | +15.5% |
| TFX | $119.61 | $100–$126 | $135.22 | +13.1% |
| EXP | $189.45 | $173–$240 | $205.93 | +8.7% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
81% of Seth Klarman · Baupost’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 11 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.94.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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