🪞 Renaissance Technologies
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Renaissance Technologies’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BITA | Bitauto Holdings Ltd-Adr | 5% |
| 2 | PHI | Pldt Inc-Spon Adr | 5% |
| 3 | DOEUR | Diamond Offshore Drilling | 4% |
| 4 | CSOD | Cornerstone Ondemand Inc | 4% |
| 5 | FOSL | Fossil Group Inc | 4% |
| 6 | HRC | Hill-Rom Holdings Inc | 4% |
| 7 | LBEUR | L Brands Inc | 4% |
| 8 | FUO | Dolby Laboratories Inc-Cl A | 4% |
| 9 | MOMO | Hello Group Inc -Spn Adr | 4% |
| 10 | NAV | Navistar International Corp | 4% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Renaissance Technologies’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDE | Coeur Mng Inc | 0.20% | added last Q | ▲▲▲ 71 |
| XLI | Select Sector Spdr Tr | 0.17% | added last Q | ▲▲▲ 71 |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 0.69% | added last Q | ▲▲ 69 |
| LITE | Lumentum Hldgs Inc | 0.22% | added last Q | ▲▲ 69 |
| SNPS | Synopsys Inc | 0.19% | added last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| - | Te Connectivity Plc | 0.18% | added last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| B | Barrick Mng Corp | 0.35% | added last Q | ▲▲ 67 |
| DPZ | Dominos Pizza Inc | 0.20% | added last Q | ▲▲ 67 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Renaissance Technologies reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTH | United Therapeutics Corp Del | 1.66% | ✊ Held |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc | 1.60% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 1.22% | ➕ Added |
| KGC | Kinross Gold Corp | 1.22% | ✊ Held |
| MU | Micron Technology Inc | 1.14% | ➖ Trimmed |
| VRSN | Verisign Inc | 1.09% | ✊ Held |
| EX9 | Exelixis Inc | 0.92% | ✊ Held |
| FNV | Franco Nev Corp | 0.86% | ➖ Trimmed |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp | 0.79% | ➖ Trimmed |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 0.69% | ➕ Added |
| CHV | Chevron Corporation | 0.65% | ✊ Held |
| RBLX | Roblox Corp | 0.63% | ✊ Held |
| CVNA | Carvana Co | 0.59% | ➖ Trimmed |
| W | Wayfair Inc | 0.58% | ✊ Held |
| HOOD | Robinhood Mkts Inc | 0.55% | ➕ Added |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 150 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | $146.28 | $129–$182 | $134.44 | -8.1% |
| AAPL | $253.79 | $246–$278 | $333.74 | +31.5% |
| KGC | $30.52 | $27–$38 | $22.57 | -26.0% |
| MU | $337.84 | $312–$461 | $984.75 | +191.5% |
| VRSN | $248.36 | $211–$252 | $270.11 | +8.8% |
| FNV | $247.05 | $208–$280 | $200.77 | -18.7% |
| SNDK | $635.34 | $274–$772 | $1354.82 | +113.2% |
| NVDA | $174.40 | $165–$195 | $207.40 | +18.9% |
| RBLX | $56.56 | $52–$87 | $51.68 | -8.6% |
| W | $75.21 | $70–$119 | $89.31 | +18.7% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
81% of Renaissance Technologies’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (12 of 15 names, ~303 trading days). Market beta 1.34.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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