🪞 Bill Ackman · Pershing Square
Activist, concentrated long-only.
Build a basket from the top picks →
🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Bill Ackman · Pershing Square’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 92% |
| 2 | T | Telus Corp | 92% |
| 3 | LUMN | Lumen Technologies Inc | 90% |
| 4 | UPBD | Upbound Group Inc | 77% |
| 5 | BHP | Bhp Group Ltd-Spon Adr | 77% |
| 6 | MRCY | Mercury Systems Inc | 77% |
| 7 | IMKTA | Ingles Markets Inc-Class A | 77% |
| 8 | CELG | Celgene Corp | 74% |
| 9 | CHGG | Chegg Inc | 73% |
| 10 | WEP | Magellan Midstream Partners | 72% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Bill Ackman · Pershing Square’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 0.07% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 0.65% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 60 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Bill Ackman · Pershing Square reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BN | Brookfield Corp | 17.62% | ✊ Held |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 17.39% | ➕ Added |
| UBER | Uber Technologies Inc | 15.71% | ✊ Held |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 15.26% | 🆕 New |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands Intl Inc | 12.20% | ✊ Held |
| META | Meta Platforms Inc | 11.10% | ✊ Held |
| HHH | Howard Hughes Holdings Inc | 8.70% | ✊ Held |
| SEG | Seaport Entmt Group Inc | 0.79% | ✊ Held |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 0.65% | ➖ Trimmed |
| HTZ | Hertz Global Hldgs Inc | 0.51% | ✊ Held |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 0.07% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 11 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BN | $40.47 | $38–$49 | $44.47 | +9.9% | $40.23 |
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% | $203.10 |
| UBER | $71.93 | $69–$88 | $74.54 | +3.6% | $71.91 |
| MSFT | $370.17 | $356–$481 | $385.10 | +4.0% | $395.17 |
| QSR | $73.90 | $65–$74 | $73.25 | -0.9% | $61.03 |
| META | $572.13 | $525–$737 | $664.54 | +16.2% | $605.08 |
| HHH | $63.26 | $62–$85 | $72.05 | +13.9% | $69.64 |
| SEG | $21.48 | $18–$23 | $26.12 | +21.6% | $19.29 |
| GOOG | $286.86 | $273–$344 | $353.81 | +23.3% | $282.80 |
| HTZ | $4.61 | $4–$6 | $1.97 | -57.3% | $4.83 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
82% of Bill Ackman · Pershing Square’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 11 names, ~439 trading days). Market beta 1.09.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
🔔 Follow this mirror
New filings and predicted-buy refreshes are published to every reader at once, weekly digest (email) · build a basket.
Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.