🪞 Bill Ackman · Pershing Square
Activist, concentrated long-only.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Bill Ackman · Pershing Square’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 3 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.7% | 2.6x |
| 5 | MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 6 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 7 | TME | Tencent Music Entertainm-Adr | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 8 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 9 | FLS | Flowserve Corp | 1.5% | 2.3x |
| 10 | EFX | Equifax Inc | 1.4% | 2.3x |
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BN | Brookfield Corp | 17.62% | ✊ Held |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 17.39% | ➕ Added |
| UBER | Uber Technologies Inc | 15.71% | ✊ Held |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 15.26% | 🆕 New |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands Intl Inc | 12.20% | ✊ Held |
| META | Meta Platforms Inc | 11.10% | ✊ Held |
| HHH | Howard Hughes Holdings Inc | 8.70% | ✊ Held |
| SEG | Seaport Entmt Group Inc | 0.79% | ✊ Held |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 0.65% | ➖ Trimmed |
| HTZ | Hertz Global Hldgs Inc | 0.51% | ✊ Held |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 0.07% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 11 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BN | $40.47 | $38–$49 | $41.22 | +1.9% | $40.23 |
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $259.77 | +24.7% | $203.10 |
| UBER | $71.93 | $69–$88 | $76.95 | +7.0% | $71.91 |
| MSFT | $370.17 | $355–$480 | $505.06 | +36.4% | $394.43 |
| QSR | $73.90 | $65–$74 | $78.07 | +5.6% | $61.03 |
| META | $572.13 | $525–$737 | $571.10 | -0.2% | $605.08 |
| HHH | $63.26 | $62–$85 | $64.80 | +2.4% | $69.64 |
| SEG | $21.48 | $18–$23 | $27.03 | +25.8% | $19.29 |
| GOOG | $286.86 | $273–$344 | $337.71 | +17.7% | $282.80 |
| HTZ | $4.61 | $4–$6 | $2.14 | -53.6% | $4.83 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
82% of Bill Ackman · Pershing Square’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 11 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 1.08.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +2.2 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 35 complete quarters (2017Q3 to 2026Q1), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.3; 95% CI includes zero). Most of that average is one quarter: 2026Q1 posted a +47.5 pt edge, roughly half of it two AI-hardware names (SNDK +258%, AMD +186%) marked at what proved to be a local peak; excluding it the edge is +0.9 pts/quarter. Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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