🪞 Prem Watsa · Fairfax
Fairfax. Buffett-style with macro hedges.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Prem Watsa · Fairfax’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WBD | Warner Bros Discovery Inc | 93% |
| 2 | CYEUR | Cypress Semiconductor Corp | 86% |
| 3 | LNWO | Light & Wonder Inc | 86% |
| 4 | WOO | Foot Locker Inc | 71% |
| 5 | AWN | Advance Auto Parts Inc | 71% |
| 6 | GSIT | Gsi Technology Inc | 67% |
| 7 | LBEUR | L Brands Inc | 67% |
| 8 | CSOD | Cornerstone Ondemand Inc | 67% |
| 9 | MSGN | Msg Networks Inc- A | 67% |
| 10 | PKN | Revvity Inc | 63% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Prem Watsa · Fairfax’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Canadian National Railway Co | 0.13% | added last Q | ▲ 59 |
| - | Brightstar Lottery Plc | 0.05% | added last Q | ▲ 58 |
| WEN | Wendys Co | 1.17% | added last Q | ▲ 57 |
| - | Garrett Motion Inc | 0.17% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 55 |
| UA | Under Armour Inc | 6.53% | added last Q | · 50 |
| WBD | Warner Bros Discovery Inc | 0.08% | just entered | · 50 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Prem Watsa · Fairfax reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Orla Mining Ltd | 25.82% | ✊ Held |
| UAA | Under Armour Inc | 13.06% | ✊ Held |
| CVS | Cvs Health Corp | 10.03% | ✊ Held |
| KW | Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc | 7.43% | ✊ Held |
| UA | Under Armour Inc | 6.53% | ➕ Added |
| CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc | 6.47% | ✊ Held |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 6.10% | ✊ Held |
| BB | Blackberry Ltd | 5.83% | ✊ Held |
| - | Ats Corp | 3.57% | ✊ Held |
| TAP | Molson Coors Beverage Co | 3.19% | ✊ Held |
| HP | Helmerich & Payne Inc | 2.18% | ✊ Held |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Ltd | 1.63% | ✊ Held |
| GM | General Motors Co | 1.44% | ✊ Held |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc | 1.43% | ➕ Added |
| BNS | Bank Nova Scotia | 1.28% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 29 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAA | $5.90 | $5–$8 | $6.47 | +9.7% | $5.17 |
| CVS | $71.82 | $69–$83 | $107.47 | +49.6% | $52.81 |
| UA | $5.77 | $5–$8 | $6.61 | +14.6% | $5.01 |
| CLF | $8.44 | $8–$15 | $9.79 | +16.0% | $9.59 |
| KHC | $22.48 | $21–$24 | $25.88 | +15.1% | $15.33 |
| BB | $3.24 | $3–$4 | $8.99 | +177.5% | $2.54 |
| TAP | $43.06 | $41–$53 | $41.78 | -3.0% | $33.79 |
| HP | $36.03 | $30–$37 | $33.74 | -6.4% | $23.53 |
| TSM | $338.10 | $316–$386 | $420.39 | +24.3% | $245.02 |
| GM | $74.50 | $72–$86 | $77.64 | +4.2% | $54.62 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
53% of Prem Watsa · Fairfax’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (12 of 13 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.00.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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