🪞 Nelson Peltz · Trian
Operational activist.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Nelson Peltz · Trian’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NSY | Nice Ltd - Spon Adr | 77% |
| 2 | HAN | Hawaiian Holdings Inc | 77% |
| 3 | DEI | Douglas Emmett Inc | 75% |
| 4 | CNDT | Conduent Inc | 75% |
| 5 | WELL | Welltower Inc | 64% |
| 6 | RME | Resmed Inc | 54% |
| 7 | PLUN | Plug Power Inc | 54% |
| 8 | KBIA | Kb Financial Group Inc-Adr | 54% |
| 9 | TRVC | Citigroup Inc | 54% |
| 10 | FQI | Digital Realty Trust Inc | 54% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Nelson Peltz · Trian’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Magnum Ice Cream Co Nv | 0.09% | just entered | ▲ 53 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Nelson Peltz · Trian reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Janus Henderson Group Plc | 42.41% | ✊ Held |
| GE | Ge Aerospace | 29.63% | ✊ Held |
| - | Solventum Corporation | 13.93% | ✊ Held |
| - | Ferguson Plc New | 6.57% | ✊ Held |
| WEN | Wendys Co. | 5.48% | ✊ Held |
| - | Invesco Ltd. | 1.87% | ✊ Held |
| - | Magnum Ice Cream Co Nv | 0.09% | 🆕 New |
| GEHC | Ge Healthcare Technologies Inc. | 0.01% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 8 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE | $283.77 | $273–$345 | $345.73 | +21.8% |
| WEN | $6.95 | $7–$8 | $7.42 | +6.8% |
| GEHC | $71.18 | $69–$88 | $63.07 | -11.4% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
45% of Nelson Peltz · Trian’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (3 of 3 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.08.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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