🪞 Francois Rochon · Giverny
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Francois Rochon · Giverny’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUNB | Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | 99% |
| 2 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | 98% |
| 3 | ALGT | Allegiant Travel Co | 97% |
| 4 | TLRDQ | Tailored Brands Inc | 97% |
| 5 | UTXZ | United Tech Corp | 97% |
| 6 | LMEUR | Legg Mason Inc | 97% |
| 7 | CARS | Cars.Com Inc | 97% |
| 8 | FBP | First Bancorp Puerto Rico | 97% |
| 9 | VISN | Vistance Networks Inc | 94% |
| 10 | LE | Lands' End Inc | 94% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Francois Rochon · Giverny’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWFG | Twfg Inc | 0.37% | added last Q | ▲ 55 |
| - | Invesco Exch Traded Fd Tr Ii | 0.04% | just entered | ▲ 54 |
| RSP | Invesco S&P500 Eq Wgt Etf | 0.04% | just entered | ▲ 53 |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Ltd | 0.10% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 51 |
| - | Aaon Inc | 0.61% | just entered | · 50 |
| SUNB | Sunbelt Rentals Hldgs In Gb Shrs | 0.65% | just entered | · 50 |
| - | Installed Bldg Prods Inc | 3.92% | trimmed last Q | · 48 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Francois Rochon · Giverny reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRK/B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 6.64% | ➖ Trimmed |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc C | 6.52% | ✊ Held |
| META | Meta Platforms Inc | 6.45% | ✊ Held |
| HEI/A | Heico Corp New | 5.71% | ✊ Held |
| SCHW | Schwab Charles Corp | 5.29% | ✊ Held |
| FIVE | Five Below Inc | 5.16% | ✊ Held |
| AME | Ametek Inc | 4.80% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MEDP | Medpace Holdings Inc | 4.50% | ✊ Held |
| V | Visa Inc | 4.39% | ✊ Held |
| - | Installed Bldg Prods Inc | 3.92% | ➖ Trimmed |
| PGR | Progressive Corp | 3.83% | ✊ Held |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 3.67% | ✊ Held |
| KEYS | Keysight Technologies Inc | 3.34% | ✊ Held |
| NVR | Nvr Inc | 3.29% | ✊ Held |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | 3.26% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 51 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-B | $479.20 | $468–$508 | $490.91 | +2.4% |
| GOOG | $286.86 | $273–$344 | $353.81 | +23.3% |
| META | $572.13 | $525–$737 | $664.54 | +16.2% |
| HEI-A | $211.09 | $205–$276 | $254.74 | +20.7% |
| SCHW | $93.98 | $91–$106 | $103.12 | +9.7% |
| FIVE | $228.48 | $185–$235 | $197.71 | -13.5% |
| AME | $214.36 | $208–$241 | $237.00 | +10.6% |
| MEDP | $480.19 | $416–$621 | $529.23 | +10.2% |
| V | $302.24 | $295–$356 | $348.97 | +15.5% |
| PGR | $198.24 | $198–$216 | $230.72 | +16.4% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
78% of Francois Rochon · Giverny’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (12 of 12 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.02.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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