🪞 Chris Bloomstran · Semper Augustus
Concentrated value.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Chris Bloomstran · Semper Augustus’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BLDR | Builders Firstsource Inc | 99% |
| 2 | MA | Mastercard Inc - A | 99% |
| 3 | NFLX | Netflix Inc | 99% |
| 4 | WORK | Slack Technologies Inc- Cl A | 98% |
| 5 | GOOG | Alphabet Inc-Cl C | 97% |
| 6 | MOV | Movado Group Inc | 95% |
| 7 | PFPT | Proofpoint Inc | 95% |
| 8 | PRSP | Perspecta Inc | 95% |
| 9 | CLGX | Corelogic Inc | 95% |
| 10 | CSWC | Capital Southwest Corp | 95% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Chris Bloomstran · Semper Augustus’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | Ishares Tr | 0.12% | added last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
| FIVE | Five Below Inc | 5.26% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| VLO | Valero Energy Corp | 1.30% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| DG | Dollar Gen Corp | 9.19% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| NEM | Newmont Corp | 6.19% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 58 |
| KGC | Kinross Gold Corp | 5.50% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 58 |
| NFLX | Netflix Inc. | 0.03% | just entered | ▲ 54 |
| - | Philip Morris Intl Inc | 0.03% | just entered | ▲ 54 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Chris Bloomstran · Semper Augustus reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRK/B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 14.48% | ✊ Held |
| BRK/A | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 9.95% | ✊ Held |
| DG | Dollar Gen Corp | 9.19% | ➖ Trimmed |
| DECK | Deckers Outdoor Corp | 7.90% | ✊ Held |
| ALK | Alaska Air Group Inc | 7.45% | ➕ Added |
| OLN | Olin Corp | 7.21% | ✊ Held |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree Inc | 6.72% | ✊ Held |
| NEM | Newmont Corp | 6.19% | ➖ Trimmed |
| KGC | Kinross Gold Corp | 5.50% | ➖ Trimmed |
| FIVE | Five Below Inc | 5.26% | ➖ Trimmed |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corp | 2.69% | ✊ Held |
| DINO | Hf Sinclair Corp | 2.69% | ✊ Held |
| CMI | Cummins Inc | 2.54% | ✊ Held |
| BLDR | Builders Firstsource Inc | 2.24% | 🆕 New |
| DIS | Disney Walt Co | 1.76% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 44 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-B | $479.20 | $468–$508 | $490.91 | +2.4% | $330.08 |
| BRK-A | $718140.00 | $703700–$762570 | $745140.00 | +3.8% | $495396.76 |
| DG | $118.73 | $116–$155 | $125.75 | +5.9% | $100.51 |
| DECK | $100.09 | $94–$121 | $106.49 | +6.4% | $78.57 |
| ALK | $36.78 | $34–$60 | $45.51 | +23.7% | $39.11 |
| OLN | $29.73 | $21–$30 | $20.68 | -30.4% | $19.18 |
| DLTR | $109.51 | $106–$141 | $128.45 | +17.3% | $91.74 |
| NEM | $108.25 | $96–$131 | $90.83 | -16.1% | $85.35 |
| KGC | $30.52 | $27–$38 | $22.57 | -26.0% | $24.67 |
| FIVE | $228.48 | $185–$235 | $197.71 | -13.5% | $152.78 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
58% of Chris Bloomstran · Semper Augustus’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (13 of 13 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.95.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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