🪞 Chris Bloomstran · Semper Augustus
Concentrated value.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Chris Bloomstran · Semper Augustus’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUNB | Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | SPGI | S&P Global Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 4 | MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 5 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 6 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 7 | CTSH | Cognizant Tech Solutions-A | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 8 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 9 | NDQ | Invesco Qqq Trust Series 1 | 1.4% | 2.2x |
| 10 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.3% | 2.1x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Chris Bloomstran · Semper Augustus’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc. | 0.02% | just entered | ▲▲ 62 |
| FIVE | Five Below Inc | 2.15% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 0.03% | just entered | ▲ 58 |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | 0.02% | just entered | ▲ 57 |
| DINO | Hf Sinclair Corp | 1.99% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 53 |
| CMI | Cummins Inc | 1.05% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 52 |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corp | 0.53% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 52 |
| SUNB | Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | 0.02% | just entered | ▲ 52 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Chris Bloomstran · Semper Augustus reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRK/B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 15.45% | ✊ Held |
| ALK | Alaska Air Group Inc | 10.58% | ✊ Held |
| BRK/A | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 10.16% | ✊ Held |
| DG | Dollar Gen Corp | 8.66% | ✊ Held |
| DECK | Deckers Outdoor Corp | 7.52% | ✊ Held |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree Inc | 7.25% | ✊ Held |
| BLDR | Builders Firstsource Inc | 5.60% | ➕ Added |
| OLN | Olin Corp | 4.83% | ✊ Held |
| NEM | Newmont Corp | 4.72% | ✊ Held |
| KGC | Kinross Gold Corp | 4.14% | ✊ Held |
| PAYX | Paychex Inc | 2.35% | 🆕 New |
| FIVE | Five Below Inc | 2.15% | ➖ Trimmed |
| SPGI | S&P Global Inc | 2.12% | 🆕 New |
| DINO | Hf Sinclair Corp | 1.99% | ➖ Trimmed |
| DIS | Disney Walt Co | 1.75% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 50 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-B | $500.39 | $465–$500 | $503.70 | +0.7% | $325.07 |
| ALK | $52.20 | $36–$54 | $41.33 | -20.8% | $34.99 |
| BRK-A | $748850.00 | $699965–$748850 | $764000.00 | +2.0% | $486483.68 |
| DG | $115.11 | $101–$126 | $126.75 | +10.1% | $81.88 |
| DECK | $99.29 | $94–$114 | $86.33 | -13.1% | $74.30 |
| DLTR | $120.95 | $87–$124 | $134.48 | +11.2% | $80.47 |
| BLDR | $89.48 | $66–$91 | $66.40 | -25.8% | $59.33 |
| OLN | $19.82 | $20–$30 | $17.40 | -12.2% | $19.22 |
| NEM | $93.40 | $93–$121 | $126.06 | +35.0% | $78.36 |
| KGC | $23.62 | $24–$35 | $32.51 | +37.6% | $22.64 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
58% of Chris Bloomstran · Semper Augustus’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (13 of 13 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 0.95.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +2.2 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 35 complete quarters (2017Q3 to 2026Q1), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.3; 95% CI includes zero). Most of that average is one quarter: 2026Q1 posted a +47.5 pt edge, roughly half of it two AI-hardware names (SNDK +258%, AMD +186%) marked at what proved to be a local peak; excluding it the edge is +0.9 pts/quarter. Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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