Who leads whom
Some investors are reliably early. This board ranks the tracked roster by how often a new position is followed, within 2 quarters, by another tracked investor entering the same name. A high lead score means that investor’s fresh buys tend to precede the crowd, the closest thing here to front-running the front-runners.
Out-of-sample stability check: split the history in half and the lead ranking holds with a rank correlation of 0.36. DESCRIPTIVE ONLY: the lead ranking does not repeat reliably out of sample, so we make no predictive claim.
Lead ranking
| # | Investor | Lead score | Entries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D. E. Shaw | 52% | 218 |
| 2 | Tci | 47% | 53 |
| 3 | Kantesaria | 47% | 17 |
| 4 | Egerton | 44% | 228 |
| 5 | Millennium | 43% | 209 |
| 6 | Mandel | 43% | 325 |
| 7 | Renaissance | 39% | 220 |
| 8 | Two Sigma | 39% | 267 |
| 9 | Punchcard | 37% | 19 |
| 10 | Corvex | 37% | 417 |
| 11 | Light Street | 36% | 348 |
| 12 | Jana | 36% | 403 |
| 13 | Whale Rock | 36% | 348 |
| 14 | Buffett | 36% | 149 |
| 15 | Citadel | 35% | 226 |
| 16 | Tiger Global | 35% | 445 |
| 17 | Altimeter | 35% | 177 |
| 18 | Sachem Head | 35% | 197 |
| 19 | Sundheim | 34% | 290 |
| 20 | Robbins | 34% | 405 |
Strongest lead → follow pairs
| Leader | tends to be followed by | Shared entries |
|---|---|---|
| Soros | Druckenmiller | 38 |
| Ainslie | Soros | 37 |
| Ainslie | Coatue | 30 |
| Mandel | Egerton | 29 |
| Soros | Viking | 29 |
| Viking | Ainslie | 29 |
| Soros | Ainslie | 29 |
| Ainslie | Viking | 28 |
| Soros | Coatue | 27 |
| Viking | Soros | 27 |
| Tiger Global | Coatue | 27 |
| Soros | Loeb | 26 |
| Two Sigma | Soros | 25 |
| Druckenmiller | Viking | 25 |
| Soros | Jana | 24 |