🪞 Daniel Loeb · Third Point
Activist, event-driven.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Daniel Loeb · Third Point’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc | 94% |
| 2 | LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 91% |
| 3 | KLAC | Kla Corp | 90% |
| 4 | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings Inc - A | 85% |
| 5 | POOL | Pool Corp | 82% |
| 6 | FSV | Firstservice Corp | 81% |
| 7 | AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 79% |
| 8 | ADSK | Autodesk Inc | 79% |
| 9 | GKD | Grand Canyon Education Inc | 76% |
| 10 | IPHI | Inphi Corp | 76% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Daniel Loeb · Third Point’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Asml Hldg Nv | 0.76% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 70 |
| MTZ | Mastec Inc | 4.94% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 69 |
| NSC | Norfolk Southn Corp | 1.38% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 69 |
| UNP | Union Pac Corp | 1.16% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| - | Claritev Corporation | 0.03% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 1.59% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 66 |
| COF | Capital One Finl Corp | 1.23% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 66 |
| CRS | Carpenter Technology Corp | 5.87% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Daniel Loeb · Third Point reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 19.40% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TDS | Telephone & Data Sys Inc | 13.34% | ✊ Held |
| - | Crh Plc | 9.59% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TPD | Somnigroup International Inc | 8.06% | ➖ Trimmed |
| CRS | Carpenter Technology Corp | 5.87% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MTZ | Mastec Inc | 4.94% | ➖ Trimmed |
| DHR | Danaher Corp Del | 4.78% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac | 4.46% | ➖ Trimmed |
| APG | Api Group Corp | 3.95% | ➖ Trimmed |
| LYV | Live Nation Entertainment In | 3.40% | ➖ Trimmed |
| META | Meta Platforms Inc | 2.47% | ➖ Trimmed |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 2.42% | ➖ Trimmed |
| GQ9 | Spdr Gold Tr | 1.96% | 🆕 New |
| HUT | Hut 8 Corp | 1.96% | 🆕 New |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 1.59% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 33 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% |
| TDS | $42.10 | $40–$48 | $34.32 | -18.5% |
| CRS | $394.15 | $310–$412 | $557.77 | +41.5% |
| MTZ | $321.74 | $219–$324 | $340.81 | +5.9% |
| DHR | $189.60 | $181–$241 | $200.79 | +5.9% |
| TSM | $337.95 | $316–$386 | $420.39 | +24.4% |
| APG | $40.52 | $39–$45 | $40.12 | -1.0% |
| LYV | $152.51 | $138–$166 | $180.22 | +18.2% |
| META | $572.13 | $525–$737 | $664.54 | +16.2% |
| GOOGL | $287.56 | $273–$343 | $346.77 | +20.6% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
83% of Daniel Loeb · Third Point’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (12 of 14 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.22.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.