🪞 David Einhorn · Greenlight
Value + activist short.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for David Einhorn · Greenlight’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ENR | Energizer Holdings Inc | 91% |
| 2 | MTN | Vail Resorts Inc | 87% |
| 3 | PRU | Prudential Financial Inc | 83% |
| 4 | HIMS | Hims & Hers Health Inc | 82% |
| 5 | SRPT | Sarepta Therapeutics Inc | 81% |
| 6 | EQH | Equitable Holdings Inc | 80% |
| 7 | OKTA | Okta Inc | 80% |
| 8 | CMCSA | Comcast Corp-Class A | 79% |
| 9 | ACAD | Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc | 79% |
| 10 | XYL | Xylem Inc | 79% |
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Dec 2023
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | Green Brick Partners Inc | 28.92% | ✊ Held |
| CEIXEUR | Consol Energy Inc New | 10.34% | ➖ Trimmed |
| BHF | Brighthouse Finl Inc | 7.86% | ✊ Held |
| KD | Kyndryl Hldgs Inc | 6.45% | ➕ Added |
| THC | Tenet Healthcare Corp | 4.86% | ➕ Added |
| ODP1 | The Odp Corp | 4.81% | ✊ Held |
| ALIT | Alight Inc | 3.85% | 🆕 New |
| GQ9 | Spdr Gold Tr | 3.61% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TECK/B | Teck Resources Ltd | 3.20% | ✊ Held |
| - | Livanova Plc | 3.11% | ✊ Held |
| GPK | Graphic Packaging Hldg Co | 3.05% | ➕ Added |
| - | Weatherford Intl Plc | 2.18% | ✊ Held |
| - | Dht Holdings Inc | 1.81% | ➕ Added |
| VTRS | Viatris Inc | 1.77% | 🆕 New |
| FCNCA | First Ctzns Bancshares Inc N | 1.72% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 40 shown.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
63% of David Einhorn · Greenlight’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (8 of 11 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.03.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.