🪞 David Einhorn · Greenlight
Dormant. This investor last filed a 13F for Dec 2023 and has not filed under this CIK since. The holdings below are that final disclosed book, kept as a historical record; no new predictions are produced for a book that has stopped reporting.
Value + activist short.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
Build a basket from the top picks →
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Dec 2023
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | Green Brick Partners Inc | 28.92% | ✊ Held |
| CEIXEUR | Consol Energy Inc New | 10.34% | ➖ Trimmed |
| BHF | Brighthouse Finl Inc | 7.86% | ✊ Held |
| KD | Kyndryl Hldgs Inc | 6.45% | ➕ Added |
| THC | Tenet Healthcare Corp | 4.86% | ➕ Added |
| ODP1 | The Odp Corp | 4.81% | ✊ Held |
| ALIT | Alight Inc | 3.85% | 🆕 New |
| GQ9 | Spdr Gold Tr | 3.61% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TECK/B | Teck Resources Ltd | 3.20% | ✊ Held |
| - | Livanova Plc | 3.11% | ✊ Held |
| GPK | Graphic Packaging Hldg Co | 3.05% | ➕ Added |
| - | Weatherford Intl Plc | 2.18% | ✊ Held |
| - | Dht Holdings Inc | 1.81% | ➕ Added |
| VTRS | Viatris Inc | 1.77% | 🆕 New |
| FCNCA | First Ctzns Bancshares Inc N | 1.72% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 40 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | $51.94 | $38–$54 | $72.22 | +39.0% |
| BHF | $52.92 | $44–$55 | $53.02 | +0.2% |
| KD | $20.78 | $14–$21 | $13.25 | -36.2% |
| THC | $75.57 | $53–$77 | $274.19 | +262.8% |
| GPK | $24.65 | $19–$23 | $11.33 | -54.0% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
63% of David Einhorn · Greenlight’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (8 of 11 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 1.05.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +2.2 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 35 complete quarters (2017Q3 to 2026Q1), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.3; 95% CI includes zero). Most of that average is one quarter: 2026Q1 posted a +47.5 pt edge, roughly half of it two AI-hardware names (SNDK +258%, AMD +186%) marked at what proved to be a local peak; excluding it the edge is +0.9 pts/quarter. Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
🔔 Follow this mirror
New filings and predicted-buy refreshes are published to every reader at once, weekly digest (email) · build a basket.
Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.