Activist 13D drift
After an activist files a Schedule 13D, the stock has historically drifted up over the next 5-10 trading days by more than a realistic round-trip cost (verified, gated). The drift decays and reverses by ~21 days, so the window is short. This is a backtested pattern on public filings, dated and descriptive, not a guarantee or advice.
Verified on 39,620 activist filings, leak-safe and gated (label-shuffle p 0.005). The 5 to 10 day net confidence interval is above zero; by 21 days the drift decays and reverses, so the window is short. This is a backtested pattern on public filings, not a guarantee, and you place any trade yourself.
Recent activist 13D filings
118 filed within the last 10 trading days (still in the drift window). As of 2026-07-18.
| Ticker | Activist | Intent | Filed | Days since | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIOS | Guo Li | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| AFB | Karpus Management, Inc. | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| BAFN | Lehman Kenneth R | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| GLOO | Beck Scott Arthur | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| CMMB | Hbm Healthcare Investments (Cayman) Ltd. | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| GCAN | Trafalgar Asset Management, Llc | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| CODI-PA | Adw Capital Partners, L.P. | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| AOMD | Davidson Kempner Capital Management Lp | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| CELC | Baker Bros. Advisors Lp | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| SGRP | Bartels William H | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| XOMAP | Biotechnology Value Fund L P | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| SNTI | Celadon Partners Spv 24 | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| DMRC | Ocho Investments Llc | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| DSGR | King Luther Capital Management Corp | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| USCB | Patriot Financial Partners Ii, L.P. | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| VERI | Steelberg Ryan | - | 2026-07-16 | 2 | in window |
| VVOS | V-Co Investors 4 Llc | - | 2026-07-15 | 3 | in window |
| RYAM | Aipcf Viii (Cayman), Ltd. | - | 2026-07-15 | 3 | in window |
| BRK-A | Buffett Warren E | - | 2026-07-15 | 3 | in window |
| RPAY | Bt Parent Gp, Llc | - | 2026-07-15 | 3 | in window |
| GLBS | Firment Shipping Inc. | - | 2026-07-15 | 3 | in window |
| MBFJF | Mitsubishi Ufj Financial Group Inc | - | 2026-07-15 | 3 | in window |
| MTA | Tether Global Investments Fund, S.I.C.A. | - | 2026-07-15 | 3 | in window |
| MFP | Garden Investment Management, L.P. | - | 2026-07-14 | 4 | in window |
| JCTC | Ajb Investment Fund Ii, Lp | - | 2026-07-14 | 4 | in window |
| SATS | Ergen Charles W | - | 2026-07-14 | 4 | in window |
| EEX | Onex Corp | - | 2026-07-14 | 4 | in window |
| BEN | Franklin Bsp Lending Fund | - | 2026-07-14 | 4 | in window |
| GGROW | Gold Sino Assets Ltd | - | 2026-07-14 | 4 | in window |
| PHUN | Goldenwise Capital Group Ltd | - | 2026-07-14 | 4 | in window |
| GEGGL | Northern Right Capital Management, L.P. | - | 2026-07-14 | 4 | in window |
| LIMNW | Valetudo Therapeutics Llc | - | 2026-07-14 | 4 | in window |
| SMSI | Smith William W Jr | - | 2026-07-14 | 4 | in window |
| TVGNW | Saadi Ryan H. | - | 2026-07-14 | 4 | in window |
| TDIC | Seto Wai Yue | - | 2026-07-13 | 5 | in window |
| ABG | Impactive Capital Lp | - | 2026-07-13 | 5 | in window |
| HUMAW | Fresenius Medical Care Holdings Inc /Ny/ | - | 2026-07-13 | 5 | in window |
| GLOO | Grace & Mercy Foundation, Inc. | - | 2026-07-13 | 5 | in window |
| IRIX | Novel Inspiration International Co., Ltd | - | 2026-07-13 | 5 | in window |
| SKYX | Shiff Dov | - | 2026-07-13 | 5 | in window |
| XRXDW | Starteepo Invest, Investicni Fond S Prom | - | 2026-07-13 | 5 | in window |
| CALC | Alafi Capital Co Llc | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| EVGN | L.I.A. Pure Capital Ltd | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| MGF | Sit Investment Associates Inc | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| BGDE | Endeavor Blockchain, Llc | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| BBIO | Viking Global Investors Lp | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| PERFF | Chang Alice Hua-Jen | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| PERFF | Cyberlink International Technology Corp. | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| BEN | Franklin Bsp Lending Fund | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| PHUN | Goldenwise Capital Group Ltd | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| PHUN | Goldenwise Capital Group Ltd | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| MLCO | Melco International Development Ltd | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| TBRG | Pinetree Capital Ltd. | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| GASS | Towerview Llc | - | 2026-07-10 | 6 | in window |
| BENFW | Silk James G. | - | 2026-07-09 | 7 | in window |
| SECZ | Domingo Soriano Carlos Francisco | - | 2026-07-09 | 7 | in window |
| HQWWW | Peak Xv Partners Seed Investment | - | 2026-07-09 | 7 | in window |
| YEXT | Lynrock Lake Lp | - | 2026-07-09 | 7 | in window |
| SITM | Renesas Electronics America Inc. | - | 2026-07-09 | 7 | in window |
| SECZ | Stephens William Bradford | - | 2026-07-09 | 7 | in window |
This is the opposite of the earnings-drift board: post-earnings drift is real gross but dies on cost at every horizon, so we do not present it as tradeable. The 13D drift is the one event signal that clears cost. Research, not advice.