Disclaimer & terms

Prior Moves is a research publication only, not financial advice, not a recommendation, and provided with no warranty of any kind.

Prior Moves publishes one model portfolio (“mirror”) per investor, identical for every reader. Each mirror combines that investor’s disclosed SEC Form 13F holdings with a machine-learning model’s estimate of the stocks they are most likely to buy next. It is general-circulation research, you read it and act on it yourself.

How it stays a publisher, not an adviser

• Impersonal. Every reader sees the same mirror. We never tailor anything to your portfolio, risk tolerance, or personal situation.
• You execute. You place any trades yourself, at your own broker, in your own size. We never place trades, route orders, or hold your assets.
• General circulation. The mirrors are a publication available to all, the way model-portfolio newsletters have operated for decades.
• No individualised advice. Predictions are pattern-matches, not buy/sell signals and not account-specific recommendations.

This is the basis on which Prior Moves operates as a publisher rather than a registered investment adviser. We are not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary.

What it does not do

• It does not time the market. The horizon is quarters, not days, it will not predict a correction or tell you the day to buy or sell. In a sell-off, a mirror can fall with the market.
• It does not touch your money. No execution, no custody, no account access.

Accuracy

• Model accuracy on historical data spans roughly 0.47–0.96 AUC across investors (median 0.65). The high end reflects broad systematic books; for the most concentrated managers the model is no better than chance, which we disclose. See the track record for per-investor detail.
• 13F filings lag the underlying trade by up to 90 days. Predictions refer to the next filing window, not the next trading day.
• Past performance does not predict future results.

Your responsibility

• You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
• Always conduct your own research and, if appropriate, consult a qualified, licensed financial professional in your jurisdiction.
• Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.

Data sources

• SEC EDGAR (13F, Form 4, 10-K, 13D/G, 8-K, public domain)
• Public news APIs: NYT Developer, Guardian Open Platform, Alpha Vantage
• Public RSS feeds (WSJ, MarketWatch, CNBC, Reuters, FT Alphaville)
• Public community archives (Reddit via arctic-shift, HackerNews, StockTwits)
• Aggregator pages (DataRoma, stockanalysis.com, finviz, FINRA Reg-SHO, Wikipedia pageviews)

All data is gathered from public sources; no paywalled content is republished. Source attribution is preserved per article.

Liability

We make no warranty, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for purpose of any prediction on this site. Use at your own risk. To the maximum extent permitted by law, the authors and operators of Prior Moves disclaim all liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages arising from use of this site.

Privacy

This site does not require an account or login. We may collect basic, non-identifying analytics (page views, country) to monitor performance. We do not sell or share any information with third parties.

Jurisdiction

This site is operated from Hong Kong / Japan. Use of the site is at your own risk and subject to the laws of your local jurisdiction.

Last updated: 2026-06-02.