🪞 Tom Russo · Gardner Russo & Quinn
Global brand compounders.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Tom Russo · Gardner Russo & Quinn’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUNB | Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | 98% |
| 2 | OII | Oceaneering Intl Inc | 75% |
| 3 | JBHT | Hunt (Jb) Transprt Svcs Inc | 75% |
| 4 | ALRM | Alarm.Com Holdings Inc | 71% |
| 5 | TREX | Trex Company Inc | 57% |
| 6 | QLYS | Qualys Inc | 56% |
| 7 | CVSA | Covista Inc | 56% |
| 8 | VEN | Ventas Inc | 49% |
| 9 | BIDUN | Baidu Inc - Spon Adr | 49% |
| 10 | BUWA | Bio-Rad Laboratories-A | 49% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Tom Russo · Gardner Russo & Quinn’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Carlsberg B A/S | 0.01% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| - | Rational Ag | 0.02% | added last Q | ▲ 56 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 0.04% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 52 |
| AXP | American Express | 0.02% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 52 |
| - | Konecranes | 0.02% | added last Q | ▲ 51 |
| LAMR | Lamar Advertising Co-A | 0.01% | trimmed last Q | · 50 |
| - | Total Return Securities Fund | 0.01% | trimmed last Q | · 49 |
| - | Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Ord | 0.01% | just entered | · 49 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Tom Russo · Gardner Russo & Quinn reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRK/A | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A | 12.34% | ✊ Held |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 11.31% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MA | Mastercard Inc Cl A | 9.15% | ✊ Held |
| 4I1 | Philip Morris International In | 8.96% | ✊ Held |
| - | Heineken Holding Nv | 7.57% | ✊ Held |
| - | Compagnie Financiere Richemont | 7.00% | ✊ Held |
| - | Nestle Sa Sponsored Adr | 6.39% | ✊ Held |
| NFLX | Netflix Inc | 6.35% | ➕ Added |
| BRK/B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B | 6.26% | ✊ Held |
| MLM | Martin Marietta Materials | 4.96% | ✊ Held |
| SUNB | Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | 4.63% | 🆕 New |
| UBER | Uber Technologies Inc | 4.38% | ✊ Held |
| - | Eurofins Scientific | 2.63% | 🆕 New |
| - | Pernod Ricard | 2.16% | ✊ Held |
| DASH | Doordash Inc Cl A | 1.77% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 86 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-A | $718140.00 | $703700–$762570 | $745140.00 | +3.8% |
| GOOG | $286.86 | $273–$344 | $353.81 | +23.3% |
| MA | $499.66 | $483–$578 | $551.54 | +10.4% |
| NFLX | $96.15 | $76–$99 | $74.35 | -22.7% |
| BRK-B | $479.20 | $468–$508 | $490.91 | +2.4% |
| MLM | $588.68 | $561–$707 | $594.17 | +0.9% |
| SUNB | $65.09 | $63–$76 | $73.19 | +12.4% |
| UBER | $71.93 | $69–$88 | $74.54 | +3.6% |
| DASH | $150.15 | $147–$231 | $184.14 | +22.6% |
| CMCSA | $28.71 | $26–$32 | $23.79 | -17.1% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
70% of Tom Russo · Gardner Russo & Quinn’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (6 of 8 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.91.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.