🪞 Carl Icahn · Icahn Capital
Activist, hostile when needed.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Carl Icahn · Icahn Capital’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FNSR | Finisar Corporation | 82% |
| 2 | DATA | Tableau Software Inc-Cl A | 64% |
| 3 | YELP | Yelp Inc | 64% |
| 4 | BVE | Diamond Hill Investment Grp | 64% |
| 5 | WP | Worldpay Inc-Class A | 64% |
| 6 | TSS | Total System Services Inc | 64% |
| 7 | FDC | First Data Corp- Class A | 64% |
| 8 | TMK | Torchmark Corp | 64% |
| 9 | LCEUR | Lendingclub Corp | 64% |
| 10 | VC | Visteon Corp | 57% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Carl Icahn · Icahn Capital’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SATS | Echostar Corporation | 1.92% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 69 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Carl Icahn · Icahn Capital reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Icahn Enterprises Lp | 48.49% | ✊ Held |
| FL9 | Cvr Energy Inc | 28.01% | ✊ Held |
| - | Cvr Partners, Lp | 6.17% | ✊ Held |
| CTRI | Centuri Holdings, Inc. | 4.90% | ✊ Held |
| IFF | International Flavors And Fragrances Inc. | 3.63% | ✊ Held |
| SATS | Echostar Corporation | 1.92% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AEP | American Electric Power Company | 1.85% | ✊ Held |
| JBLU | Jetblue Airways Corp. | 1.74% | ✊ Held |
| MNRO | Monro, Inc. | 0.95% | ✊ Held |
| - | Sandridge Energy, Inc. | 0.94% | ✊ Held |
| CZR | Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | 0.75% | ✊ Held |
| - | Bausch Plus Lomb Corp. | 0.65% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 12 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTRI | $29.21 | $26–$32 | $27.70 | -5.2% |
| IFF | $72.55 | $66–$82 | $77.60 | +7.0% |
| AEP | $131.08 | $112–$133 | $133.13 | +1.6% |
| JBLU | $4.42 | $4–$6 | $5.33 | +20.6% |
| MNRO | $16.04 | $15–$23 | $17.46 | +8.9% |
| CZR | $26.43 | $18–$29 | $29.86 | +13.0% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
49% of Carl Icahn · Icahn Capital’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (6 of 8 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.95.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.