Prior Movesmirror the world’s best investors

🪞 Carl Icahn · Icahn Capital

Activist, hostile when needed.

Style
Activist
Disclosed holdings
12
Model accuracy (AUC)
61%
Backtest edge
+0.8 pts/q

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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30

Pure model output for Carl Icahn · Icahn Capital’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.

#TickerCompanyModel probability
1FNSRFinisar Corporation82%
2DATATableau Software Inc-Cl A64%
3YELPYelp Inc64%
4BVEDiamond Hill Investment Grp64%
5WPWorldpay Inc-Class A64%
6TSSTotal System Services Inc64%
7FDCFirst Data Corp- Class A64%
8TMKTorchmark Corp64%
9LCEURLendingclub Corp64%
10VCVisteon Corp57%

📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading

Of Carl Icahn · Icahn Capital’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.

TickerCompanyWeightLast moveSell likelihood
SATSEchostar Corporation1.92%trimmed last Q▲▲ 69

⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Carl Icahn · Icahn Capital reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.

📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026

TickerCompanyWeightLast change
-Icahn Enterprises Lp48.49%✊ Held
FL9Cvr Energy Inc28.01%✊ Held
-Cvr Partners, Lp6.17%✊ Held
CTRICenturi Holdings, Inc.4.90%✊ Held
IFFInternational Flavors And Fragrances Inc.3.63%✊ Held
SATSEchostar Corporation1.92%➖ Trimmed
AEPAmerican Electric Power Company1.85%✊ Held
JBLUJetblue Airways Corp.1.74%✊ Held
MNROMonro, Inc.0.95%✊ Held
-Sandridge Energy, Inc.0.94%✊ Held
CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc.0.75%✊ Held
-Bausch Plus Lomb Corp.0.65%✊ Held

Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 12 shown.

💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost

13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.

TickerAvg costAccumulation zoneTodayvs cost
CTRI$29.21$26–$32$27.70-5.2%
IFF$72.55$66–$82$77.60+7.0%
AEP$131.08$112–$133$133.13+1.6%
JBLU$4.42$4–$6$5.33+20.6%
MNRO$16.04$15–$23$17.46+8.9%
CZR$26.43$18–$29$29.86+13.0%

🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book

49% of Carl Icahn · Icahn Capital’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (6 of 8 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.95.

growth
value
large-cap
small-cap
low-quality
quality
contrarian
momentum
aggressive
conservative

⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.

📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500

Avg edge / quarter
+0.8 pts
Quarters beating S&P
13/34
Avg quarterly return
+4.7%
0%141%282%2017-092021-122025-12This mirror (backtest)S&P 500

⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.

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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.