🪞 Stephen Mandel · Lone Pine
Long-short growth (Tiger cub).
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Stephen Mandel · Lone Pine’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TER | Teradyne Inc | 98% |
| 2 | GLW | Corning Inc | 96% |
| 3 | ALSN | Allison Transmission Holding | 96% |
| 4 | MTZ | Mastec Inc | 95% |
| 5 | AGX | Argan Inc | 95% |
| 6 | USFD | Us Foods Holding Corp | 95% |
| 7 | FNV | Franco-Nevada Corp | 94% |
| 8 | TRGP | Targa Resources Corp | 93% |
| 9 | EXK | Exact Sciences Corp | 93% |
| 10 | SRG | Seritage Growth Prop- A | 93% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Stephen Mandel · Lone Pine’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APH | Amphenol Corp | 0.22% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 71 |
| BSX | Boston Scientific Corp | 0.05% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 66 |
| CIEN | Ciena Corp | 2.51% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
| - | Spotify Technology S A | 0.27% | added last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| BN | Brookfield Corp | 3.62% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| MCK | Mckesson Corp | 2.71% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| V | Visa Inc | 0.22% | added last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 0.43% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Stephen Mandel · Lone Pine reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| VST | Vistra Corp | 7.42% | ➕ Added |
| - | Asml Hldg Nv | 6.90% | ✊ Held |
| CRS | Carpenter Technology Corp | 5.71% | ➕ Added |
| LPLA | Lpl Finl Hldgs Inc | 4.92% | ✊ Held |
| APP | Applovin Corp | 4.65% | ➕ Added |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corp | 4.63% | ➕ Added |
| TER | Teradyne Inc | 4.43% | 🆕 New |
| CVNA | Carvana Co | 4.40% | ✊ Held |
| - | Nu Hldgs Ltd | 4.35% | ➕ Added |
| MDLN | Medline Inc | 4.18% | ✊ Held |
| GLW | Corning Inc | 4.03% | 🆕 New |
| CLH | Clean Harbors Inc | 4.01% | ➕ Added |
| MTZ | Mastec Inc | 3.93% | 🆕 New |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac | 3.74% | ➖ Trimmed |
| BN | Brookfield Corp | 3.62% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 36 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST | $150.33 | $142–$180 | $158.43 | +5.4% |
| CRS | $394.15 | $310–$412 | $557.77 | +41.5% |
| LPLA | $300.83 | $284–$392 | $329.12 | +9.4% |
| APP | $398.00 | $367–$669 | $424.54 | +6.7% |
| TLN | $319.23 | $303–$419 | $400.12 | +25.3% |
| TER | $296.46 | $207–$343 | $359.60 | +21.3% |
| MDLN | $44.50 | $39–$50 | $38.66 | -13.1% |
| GLW | $135.97 | $85–$160 | $158.39 | +16.5% |
| CLH | $286.73 | $243–$297 | $303.37 | +5.8% |
| MTZ | $321.74 | $219–$324 | $340.81 | +5.9% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
77% of Stephen Mandel · Lone Pine’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (12 of 13 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.44.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.