🪞 Ray Dalio · Bridgewater
All-weather macro.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Ray Dalio · Bridgewater’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOOG | Alphabet Inc-Cl C | 99% |
| 2 | EMXC | Ishares Msci Emr Mrk Ex Chna | 94% |
| 3 | RDFN | Redfin Corp | 57% |
| 4 | CUCA | Avis Budget Group Inc | 57% |
| 5 | AKX | Ansys Inc | 57% |
| 6 | IHP | Dine Brands Global Inc | 57% |
| 7 | RDY | Dr. Reddy'S Laboratories-Adr | 49% |
| 8 | OKLO | Oklo Inc | 43% |
| 9 | GSPY | Gotham Enhanced 500 Etf | 37% |
| 10 | CHT | Chunghwa Telecom Lt-Spon Adr | 36% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Ray Dalio · Bridgewater’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMKR | Amkor Technology Inc | 0.32% | added last Q | ▲▲▲ 73 |
| AME | Ametek Inc | 0.11% | added last Q | ▲▲▲ 72 |
| SBSW | Sibanye Stillwater Ltd | 0.24% | added last Q | ▲▲ 70 |
| - | Century Alum Co | 0.19% | added last Q | ▲▲ 69 |
| SNPS | Synopsys Inc | 0.37% | added last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| COHR | Coherent Corp | 0.17% | added last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| KMT | Kennametal Inc | 0.10% | added last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| UNP | Union Pac Corp | 0.58% | added last Q | ▲▲ 67 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Ray Dalio · Bridgewater reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | State Str Spdr S&P 500 Etf T | 12.67% | ✊ Held |
| IVV | Ishares Tr | 7.81% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 4.08% | ➕ Added |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 3.65% | ➕ Added |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 2.56% | ➕ Added |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 2.54% | ➕ Added |
| MU | Micron Technology Inc | 2.23% | ➕ Added |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 1.79% | ➕ Added |
| GEV | Ge Vernova Inc | 1.69% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac | 1.62% | ➕ Added |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 1.50% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc | 1.17% | ➖ Trimmed |
| NEM | Newmont Corp | 1.12% | ✊ Held |
| ORCL | Oracle Corp | 1.05% | ➖ Trimmed |
| EWY | Ishares Inc | 0.97% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 150 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $650.34 | $630–$692 | $749.17 | +15.2% |
| IVV | $653.21 | $633–$695 | $755.12 | +15.6% |
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% |
| NVDA | $174.40 | $165–$195 | $207.40 | +18.9% |
| GOOGL | $287.56 | $273–$343 | $346.77 | +20.6% |
| AVGO | $309.51 | $293–$353 | $370.83 | +19.8% |
| MU | $337.84 | $312–$461 | $984.75 | +191.5% |
| MSFT | $370.17 | $356–$481 | $385.10 | +4.0% |
| GEV | $872.90 | $622–$923 | $1057.84 | +21.2% |
| TSM | $337.95 | $316–$386 | $420.39 | +24.4% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
92% of Ray Dalio · Bridgewater’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (15 of 15 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.22.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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