Prior Moves · the research desk
All boards
Every board we publish, one line each. Model-predicted surfaces carry the dashed cyan mark; disclosed registers and tools stay plain. Research, not advice.
Forecast boards
6 · what the model expects nextTop picksThe aggregated forward buy-list, ranked by PriorScore, a drawer per name.150 rankedpredictedPredicted addsPositions the tracked investors are likely to increase next quarter.AUC 0.58predictedPredicted exitsCurrent holdings the model expects trimmed or sold next.AUC 0.67predictedAdd / hold / trim / exitThe four-way consensus read on every held name.4-waypredictedBasket builderTurn picks into a whole-share buy-list: presets, caps, volatility tolerance, fit-my-capital.exports CSVMy portfolioPaste your own positions and see them through the model.bulk paste · CSV
Investor mirrors
2 · 44 tracked · 26 in the validated backtest rosterGlobal disclosure
9 · the registers 13F is blind toJapanEDINET 5% filings plus predicted adds, verifiable in about five business days.EDINET · predictedpredictedUnited KingdomThe FCA TR-1 register; predictions checkable in about two trading days.FCA · predictedpredictedEuropeAFM substantial holdings, disclosed only. The predicted board was demoted, publicly.AFM · disclosedHong KongHKEX 5% crossings, filed about three business days after the event.HKEX · ~3-day lagActivistsLarge-shareholding action abroad, US Congress buys, and prediction-market odds.JP · UK · KR · EU13D driftUS Schedule 13D filings inside the short post-filing drift window.event studyCongress buysWhat senators and representatives bought, from STOCK Act disclosures.STOCK ActGov contractsPublic companies winning federal prime awards.USAspendingPolicy exposureNames exposed to policy attention. A candidate signal, not in the ranking.orthogonal
Honesty layer
6 · the reason to trust the restTrack recordThe dated calls with cryptographic receipts, the risk panel, and the backtest stated honestly.receipts + risk panelHonest mathMyth autopsies with the numbers that killed them. Dead ideas stay published.the graveyardCalibrationScored on out-of-sample predictions, not on the training set.does P 0.68 hit 68%MethodologyThe walk-forward design, the leak controls, and what we refuse to claim.leak-fencedVerify a strategyPaste a return series, get a deflated Sharpe and an overfitting probability.runs in your browserFiling forensicsA Benford-style screen on filings, with an honest base-rate panel.base rates shown
Signals & context
13 · corroboration, never the headlineEarnings driftPost-earnings drift on covered names, multi-horizon.gross, ~0 netAnalyst momentumConsensus picks analysts are also revising up.revisionsConfluenceNames where consensus, insiders, activists and Congress agree.multi-signalWho leads whomWhich investors' entries precede the others'.lead / lagCrowded namesWhere too many mirrors agree at once.concentrationCapital rotationSector flows from disclosed 13F actions.sector flowsBearish signalsWhere the disclosed record leans against a name.the other sideBiotech catalystsLate-stage pipelines and recalls next to the model's read.openFDA · trialsEvent oddsMarket-implied odds on events that move these names.Polymarket · KalshiAlt signalsNews tone and hiring proxies on the top picks.news · hiringFund bookEvery tracked fund's disclosed book, position by position.whole booksGlobal 500The world's largest companies by size and drawdown. Reference, never picks.referenceDe-vigStrip the bookmaker margin off any line. No bets.math tool
Learn & tools
6 · plain language, working toolsExplain a pickSearch any name, see the live five-component decomposition.5 componentsLearnPlain-language explainers, per investor and per concept.58 explainersWeekly digestThe week's forecasts and receipts. Free.one emailHow it worksThe mirror, the model, and the publisher rules.3 stepsComparePrior Moves next to copy apps, newsletters and trackers.facts onlyDisclaimerWhat we are, and what we are not.research, not advice
The investor brief
The method, the numbers canon, and the caveats, on one page for partners.