🪞 Bruce Berkowitz · Fairholme
Concentrated value.
Build a basket from the top picks →
🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Bruce Berkowitz · Fairholme’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AWM | Skyworks Solutions Inc | 97% |
| 2 | AZNN | Astrazeneca Plc-Spons Adr | 97% |
| 3 | AFW | Align Technology Inc | 97% |
| 4 | EBA | Ebay Inc | 95% |
| 5 | HCQ | Amn Healthcare Services Inc | 90% |
| 6 | EXEEL | Chesapeake Energy Corp -Cw26 | 90% |
| 7 | WB | Weibo Corp-Spon Adr | 84% |
| 8 | CRVL | Corvel Corp | 83% |
| 9 | DDL | Dingdong Cayman Ltd -Spn Adr | 82% |
| 10 | CRTO | Criteo Sa-Spon Adr | 81% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Bruce Berkowitz · Fairholme’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOMB | Home Bancshares Inc | 0.02% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 69 |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 0.16% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 66 |
| PGR | Progressive Corp | 0.87% | added last Q | ▲ 58 |
| - | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 0.09% | added last Q | ▲ 53 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Bruce Berkowitz · Fairholme reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| JOE | St Joe Co | 79.67% | ✊ Held |
| EPD | Enterprise Prods Partners L | 13.63% | ✊ Held |
| OZK | Bank Ozk | 2.79% | ✊ Held |
| BRK/B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 1.60% | ✊ Held |
| WRB | Wr Berkley Corp | 1.12% | ✊ Held |
| PGR | Progressive Corp | 0.87% | ➕ Added |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 0.16% | ➖ Trimmed |
| BRK/A | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 0.09% | ➕ Added |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 0.04% | ✊ Held |
| HOMB | Home Bancshares Inc | 0.02% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 10 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOE | $62.80 | $60–$72 | $60.67 | -3.4% | $57.25 |
| EPD | $37.84 | $31–$39 | $38.20 | +1.0% | $30.61 |
| OZK | $45.89 | $43–$50 | $53.09 | +15.7% | $39.85 |
| BRK-B | $479.20 | $468–$508 | $490.91 | +2.4% | $401.57 |
| WRB | $66.28 | $64–$73 | $71.61 | +8.0% | $57.37 |
| PGR | $198.24 | $198–$216 | $230.72 | +16.4% | $170.95 |
| KHC | $22.49 | $21–$24 | $25.88 | +15.1% | $19.08 |
| BRK-A | $718140.00 | $703700–$762570 | $745140.00 | +3.8% | $602704.60 |
| AAPL | $253.79 | $246–$278 | $333.74 | +31.5% | $219.41 |
| HOMB | $26.93 | $26–$30 | $28.63 | +6.3% | $23.82 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
41% of Bruce Berkowitz · Fairholme’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (8 of 8 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.74.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
🔔 Follow this mirror
New filings and predicted-buy refreshes are published to every reader at once, weekly digest (email) · build a basket.
Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.