🪞 David Abrams · Abrams Capital
Concentrated value, low turnover.
Build a basket from the top picks →
🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for David Abrams · Abrams Capital’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BID | Sotheby'S | 47% |
| 2 | LNC | Lincoln National Corp | 47% |
| 3 | BXUSD | Blackstone Group Lp/The | 45% |
| 4 | TRCO | Tribune Media Co - A | 45% |
| 5 | YYEUR | Yy Inc-Adr | 45% |
| 6 | CSOD | Cornerstone Ondemand Inc | 43% |
| 7 | LBEUR | L Brands Inc | 43% |
| 8 | MSGN | Msg Networks Inc- A | 43% |
| 9 | GSIT | Gsi Technology Inc | 43% |
| 10 | HRC | Hill-Rom Holdings Inc | 34% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of David Abrams · Abrams Capital’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUVB | Nuvation Bio Inc | 0.12% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 53 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether David Abrams · Abrams Capital reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOAR | Loar Holdings Inc | 39.59% | ✊ Held |
| LAD | Lithia Mtrs Inc | 13.41% | ✊ Held |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 11.57% | ✊ Held |
| TPD | Somnigroup International Inc | 9.24% | ✊ Held |
| AWG | Asbury Automotive Group Inc | 9.08% | ✊ Held |
| CPNG | Coupang Inc | 5.30% | ✊ Held |
| - | Willis Towers Watson Plc Ltd | 4.52% | ✊ Held |
| META | Meta Platforms Inc | 4.01% | ✊ Held |
| - | U Haul Holding Company | 3.13% | ✊ Held |
| NUVB | Nuvation Bio Inc | 0.12% | ➖ Trimmed |
| UHAL | U Haul Holding Company | 0.04% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 11 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOAR | $57.29 | $55–$75 | $70.57 | +23.2% | $46.26 |
| LAD | $249.72 | $243–$343 | $335.28 | +34.3% | $210.11 |
| GOOGL | $287.56 | $273–$343 | $346.77 | +20.6% | $210.35 |
| CPNG | $18.88 | $17–$24 | $16.62 | -12.0% | $14.42 |
| META | $572.13 | $525–$737 | $664.54 | +16.2% | $451.65 |
| NUVB | $4.29 | $4–$9 | $5.80 | +35.2% | $5.42 |
| UHAL | $47.78 | $42–$59 | $66.75 | +39.7% | $36.18 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
51% of David Abrams · Abrams Capital’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (8 of 9 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.95.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
🔔 Follow this mirror
New filings and predicted-buy refreshes are published to every reader at once, weekly digest (email) · build a basket.
Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.