🪞 Howard Marks · Oaktree
Distressed credit + market-cycle awareness.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Howard Marks · Oaktree’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BKLN | Invesco Senior Loan Etf | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | SNREN | Sunrise Communicat-Cl A | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 5 | EFX | Equifax Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 6 | INTC | Intel Corp | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 7 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 8 | CPB | The Campbell'S Company | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 9 | MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 10 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.5% | 2.4x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Howard Marks · Oaktree’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Riot Platforms Inc | 0.73% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 70 |
| - | Datadog Inc | 0.03% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| - | Core Scientific Inc | 3.55% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| - | Sharonai Holdings Inc | 0.34% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 66 |
| - | Strategy Inc | 0.07% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 66 |
| - | Neogenomics Inc | 0.01% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 66 |
| - | Snap Inc | 0.01% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
| - | Nutanix Inc | 0.03% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Howard Marks · Oaktree reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | State Street Corp | 14.04% | 🆕 New |
| NDQ | Invesco Qqq Trust Series 1 | 9.04% | ➕ Added |
| - | Torm Plc | 7.28% | ➖ Trimmed |
| EXE | Expand Energy Corp | 6.63% | ✊ Held |
| - | Garrett Motion Inc | 3.82% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Anglogold Ashanti Plc | 3.57% | ✊ Held |
| - | Core Scientific Inc | 3.55% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Indivior Pharmaceuticals Inc | 3.49% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TDS | Telephone And Data Systems Inc | 2.71% | ➕ Added |
| VNOM | Viper Energy Inc | 2.23% | ✊ Held |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corp | 1.77% | ➖ Trimmed |
| B | Barrick Mining Corp | 1.63% | ➕ Added |
| BVXB | Itau Unibanco Holding Sa | 1.36% | ✊ Held |
| - | Liberty Global Ltd | 1.35% | ✊ Held |
| - | Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp | 1.30% | ➕ Added |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 143 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $746.77 | $649–$758 | $771.10 | +3.3% | $520.43 |
| EXE | $91.19 | $86–$108 | $98.00 | +7.5% | $74.51 |
| TDS | $37.01 | $37–$46 | $33.15 | -10.4% | $31.89 |
| VNOM | $42.40 | $42–$49 | $44.67 | +5.4% | $33.96 |
| TLN | $384.26 | $313–$438 | $295.76 | -23.0% | $300.96 |
| B | $36.73 | $36–$47 | $44.83 | +22.1% | $32.15 |
| FCX | $62.89 | $55–$72 | $78.42 | +24.7% | $49.15 |
| KRC | $37.47 | $27–$38 | $36.69 | -2.1% | $26.21 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | puts | bearish / hedge |
| NDQ | puts | bearish / hedge |
| VC | puts | bearish / hedge |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
74% of Howard Marks · Oaktree’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (6 of 8 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 0.88.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +2.2 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 35 complete quarters (2017Q3 to 2026Q1), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.3; 95% CI includes zero). Most of that average is one quarter: 2026Q1 posted a +47.5 pt edge, roughly half of it two AI-hardware names (SNDK +258%, AMD +186%) marked at what proved to be a local peak; excluding it the edge is +0.9 pts/quarter. Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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