🪞 Howard Marks · Oaktree
Distressed credit + market-cycle awareness.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Howard Marks · Oaktree’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BILI | Bilibili Inc-Sponsored Adr | 91% |
| 2 | TTAN | Servicetitan Inc-A | 90% |
| 3 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods Co/The | 86% |
| 4 | LGN | Legence Corp-Cl A | 83% |
| 5 | EMBJ | Embraer Sa-Spon Adr | 81% |
| 6 | MANH | Manhattan Associates Inc | 81% |
| 7 | CHRD | Chord Energy Corp | 80% |
| 8 | WDAY | Workday Inc-Class A | 80% |
| 9 | ECL | Ecolab Inc | 79% |
| 10 | DRI | Darden Restaurants Inc | 76% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Howard Marks · Oaktree’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Rapid7 Inc | 0.02% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 77 |
| - | Meritage Homes Corp | 0.03% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 73 |
| - | Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc | 0.03% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 71 |
| - | Celcuity Inc | 0.02% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 71 |
| - | Live Nation Entertainment Inc | 0.03% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 71 |
| PDD | Pdd Holdings Inc | 0.01% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 70 |
| - | Gladstone Capital Corp | 0.03% | added last Q | ▲▲ 70 |
| - | Progress Software Corp | 0.55% | added last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Howard Marks · Oaktree reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Torm Plc | 10.30% | ✊ Held |
| EXE | Expand Energy Corp | 8.77% | ✊ Held |
| NDQ | Invesco Qqq Trust Series 1 | 5.02% | 🆕 New |
| - | Anglogold Ashanti Plc | 4.79% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Garrett Motion Inc | 4.04% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Indivior Pharmaceuticals Inc | 3.25% | 🆕 New |
| - | Core Scientific Inc | 2.93% | ➕ Added |
| XOP | State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Pr | 2.77% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TDS | Telephone And Data Systems Inc | 2.76% | ➕ Added |
| VNOM | Viper Energy Inc | 2.72% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corp | 2.34% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Sunopta Inc | 2.05% | ✊ Held |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro Sa - Petrobras | 1.93% | ➕ Added |
| B | Barrick Mining Corp | 1.63% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Liberty Global Ltd | 1.58% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 145 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXE | $109.78 | $98–$113 | $88.13 | -19.7% | $77.81 |
| XOP | $181.83 | $123–$187 | $170.18 | -6.4% | $128.68 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| NDQ | puts | bearish / hedge |
| XOP | puts | bearish / hedge |
| TLN | calls | bullish / levered |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
41% of Howard Marks · Oaktree’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (7 of 8 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.80.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.