United Kingdom
Predicted next buys (UK)
The UK is the fastest market to check a prediction against reality. A US 13F confirms a buy up to 45 days late; the UK’s TR-1 major-holding notice (DTR5) is due within about two trading days of crossing 3%. Below is P(the fund adds this name next), from the same per-investor walk-forward model that scores the US and Japan boards, out-of-sample AUC about 83% (point-in-time validated: the panel is chosen using only filings dated before each test window, so the figure is not inflated by hindsight). The panel is restricted to conviction-frequency filers — index-tilted funds that re-cross the 3% band scores of times a year are excluded because their next filing is churn, not a signal. Research, not advice.
| Investor | Company | P(add next) | Stake | Signal | Next filing due |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silchester International | HOWDEN JOINERY GROUP PLC (GB0005576813) GB0005576813 | 95% | 5.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| primestone | THE PEBBLE GROUP PLC (GB00BK71XP16) GB00BK71XP16 | 86% | 5.6% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Causeway Capital | MELROSE INDUSTRIES PLC (GB00BNGDN821) GB00BNGDN821 | 44% | 6.1% | holder | 2026-07-20 |
| primestone | JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP PLC (GB0004762810) GB0004762810 | 16% | 10.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| toscafund | INTERNATIONAL WORKPLACE GROUP PLC (JE00BYVQYS01) JE00BYVQYS01 | 14% | 10.0% | holder | 2026-07-31 |
| Lansdowne Partners | BREEDON GROUP PLC (GB00BM8NFJ84) GB00BM8NFJ84 | 92% | 5.1% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Silchester International | SCHRODERS PLC (GB00BP9LHF23) GB00BP9LHF23 | 73% | 4.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Causeway Capital | WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC (JE00BN574F90) JE00BN574F90 | 82% | 7.1% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Gatemore Capital | SENSYNE HEALTH PLC (GB00BYV3J755) GB00BYV3J755 | 85% | 5.9% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Lansdowne Partners | FULLER SMITH & TURNER PLC (GB00B1YPC344) GB00B1YPC344 | 4% | 12.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Oasis Management | OPTIMA HEALTH PLC (GB00BRSCY602) GB00BRSCY602 | 10% | 5.8% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Oasis Management | Greencore Group plc (IE0003864109) IE0003864109 | 2% | 10.1% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| sherborne | SHERBORNE INVESTORS (GUERNSEY) C LIMITED (GG00BZ3C3B94) GG00BZ3C3B94 | 9% | 30.1% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Causeway Capital | WH SMITH PLC (GB00B2PDGW16) GB00B2PDGW16 | 0% | 22.1% | holder | 2026-08-07 |
| Causeway Capital | ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS PLC (GB00B63H8491) GB00B63H8491 | 79% | 5.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Causeway Capital | THE BERKELEY GROUP HOLDINGS PLC (GB00BP0RGD03) GB00BP0RGD03 | 95% | 5.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Cevian Capital | AVIVA PLC (GB0002162385) GB0002162385 | 95% | 5.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Cevian Capital | PEARSON PLC (GB0006776081) GB0006776081 | 1% | 19.2% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Cevian Capital | SMITH & NEPHEW PLC (GB0009223206) GB0009223206 | 0% | 13.2% | holder | 2026-08-04 |
| Cevian Capital | VESUVIUS PLC (GB00B82YXW83) GB00B82YXW83 | 1% | 23.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Gatemore Capital | DX (GROUP) PLC (GB00BJTCG679) GB00BJTCG679 | 0% | 19.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Lansdowne Partners | TUNGSTEN WEST PLC (GB00BP6QM557) GB00BP6QM557 | 1% | 27.6% | holder | 2026-08-15 |
| lindsell_train | FEVERTREE DRINKS PLC (GB00BRJ9BJ26) GB00BRJ9BJ26 | 11% | 10.7% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Oasis Management | HUNTING PLC (GB0004478896) GB0004478896 | 95% | 5.1% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Oasis Management | MITIE GROUP PLC (GB0004657408) GB0004657408 | 95% | 5.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Oasis Management | KIER GROUP PLC (GB0004915632) GB0004915632 | 95% | 5.2% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Oasis Management | THE RESTAURANT GROUP PLC (GB00B0YG1K06) GB00B0YG1K06 | 4% | 13.1% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Oasis Management | COSTAIN GROUP PLC (GB00B64NSP76) GB00B64NSP76 | 62% | 10.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Oasis Management | MARLOWE PLC (GB00BD8SLV43) GB00BD8SLV43 | 95% | 5.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Oasis Management | CAPITA PLC (GB00BPCT7534) GB00BPCT7534 | 0% | 15.2% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Palliser Capital | CAPRICORN ENERGY PLC (GB00BNKT5L33) GB00BNKT5L33 | 3% | 13.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Palliser Capital | CAPRICORN ENERGY PLC (GB00BRJ7R218) GB00BRJ7R218 | 1% | 12.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| primestone | GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC (GB00BFX3K770) GB00BFX3K770 | 95% | 5.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| primestone | Harmony Energy Income Trust PLC (GB00BLNNFY18) GB00BLNNFY18 | 19% | 11.2% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Silchester International | HAYS PLC (GB0004161021) GB0004161021 | 1% | 18.1% | holder | 2026-08-30 |
| Silchester International | MITIE GROUP PLC (GB0004657408) GB0004657408 | 12% | 5.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Silchester International | WM MORRISON SUPERMARKETS P L C (GB0006043169) GB0006043169 | 41% | 4.1% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Silchester International | PEARSON PLC (GB0006776081) GB0006776081 | 95% | 4.9% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Silchester International | BABCOCK INTERNATIONAL GROUP PLC (GB0009697037) GB0009697037 | 95% | 5.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
| Silchester International | KINGFISHER PLC (GB0033195214) GB0033195214 | 2% | 10.0% | holder | 2026-07-18 |
A predicted probability is a statement about a filing pattern, not a claim that the investor has bought the name or that you should. Model as of 2026-07-01. When the TR-1 lands, check us against it.
UK-listed positions are disclosed under the FCA’s DTR5 regime: a holder crossing 3% of voting rights files a TR-1 notice within about two trading days. We ingest those notices for a roster of UK-active conviction funds and value managers. For the full disclosed UK feed — including the funds not in the predicted panel — see the multi-market activists feed.
Source: FCA National Storage Mechanism TR-1 major-holding notifications (3% threshold). Stake is percent of voting rights at the latest filing. The predicted board is model output; the disclosed feed is descriptive. Neither is advice.