🪞 Bill Nygren · Oakmark
Classic contrarian value.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Bill Nygren · Oakmark’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DSI | Ishares Esg Msci Kld 400 Etf | 98% |
| 2 | SUNB | Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | 98% |
| 3 | ESGD | Ishares Trust Ishares Esg Aw | 98% |
| 4 | ROP | Roper Technologies Inc | 97% |
| 5 | IMKTA | Ingles Markets Inc-Class A | 97% |
| 6 | WAT | Waters Corp | 97% |
| 7 | PDX | Pimco Dynamic Income Strat | 96% |
| 8 | EXEEL | Chesapeake Energy Corp -Cw26 | 96% |
| 9 | UPBD | Upbound Group Inc | 96% |
| 10 | SYF | Synchrony Financial | 96% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Bill Nygren · Oakmark’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWA | Borgwarner Inc | 0.02% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 72 |
| UL | Unilever Plc | 0.00% | just entered | ▲▲▲ 70 |
| VTV | Vanguard Index Fds | 0.00% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 70 |
| OPLN | Openlane Inc | 0.02% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 69 |
| SGOV | Ishares Tr | 0.00% | added last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
| CIGI | Colliers Intl Group Inc | 0.04% | added last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
| WMT | Walmart Inc | 0.00% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
| ADBE | Adobe Inc | 0.74% | added last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Bill Nygren · Oakmark reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | Salesforce Inc | 3.71% | ➕ Added |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange In | 3.43% | ✊ Held |
| KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc | 3.27% | ✊ Held |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc | 3.23% | ✊ Held |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 3.22% | ✊ Held |
| COP | Conocophillips | 3.07% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TRGP | Targa Res Corp | 2.91% | ➖ Trimmed |
| IQV | Iqvia Hldgs Inc | 2.77% | ✊ Held |
| SCHW | Schwab Charles Corp | 2.73% | ✊ Held |
| COF | Capital One Finl Corp | 2.52% | ✊ Held |
| FCNCA | First Ctzns Bancshares Inc D | 2.38% | ✊ Held |
| - | Willis Towers Watson Plc Ltd | 2.33% | ✊ Held |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | 2.22% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AIG | American Intl Group Inc | 2.07% | ✊ Held |
| ELV | Elevance Health Inc Formerly | 2.00% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 150 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | $186.67 | $177–$265 | $170.77 | -8.5% | $200.78 |
| ICE | $157.28 | $149–$174 | $137.61 | -12.5% | $131.86 |
| KDP | $26.33 | $26–$31 | $31.38 | +19.2% | $23.16 |
| GOOGL | $287.56 | $273–$343 | $346.77 | +20.6% | $260.29 |
| ABNB | $126.28 | $116–$140 | $147.80 | +17.0% | $106.22 |
| COP | $132.00 | $93–$133 | $114.71 | -13.1% | $100.72 |
| TRGP | $250.73 | $173–$249 | $263.52 | +5.1% | $189.18 |
| IQV | $170.54 | $162–$244 | $207.85 | +21.9% | $185.25 |
| SCHW | $93.98 | $91–$106 | $103.12 | +9.7% | $80.74 |
| COF | $182.43 | $175–$256 | $208.03 | +14.0% | $194.02 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| ELV | calls | bullish / levered |
| FISV | calls | bullish / levered |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
83% of Bill Nygren · Oakmark’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (14 of 14 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.94.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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