🪞 Brad Gerstner · Altimeter
Growth, tech, travel, AI.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Brad Gerstner · Altimeter’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DNB | Dun & Bradstreet Holdings In | 98% |
| 2 | AXON | Axon Enterprise Inc | 95% |
| 3 | CNDT | Conduent Inc | 94% |
| 4 | DENN | Denny'S Corp | 94% |
| 5 | ATHM | Autohome Inc-Adr | 94% |
| 6 | TMCWW | Tmc The Metals Co Inc -Cw25I | 93% |
| 7 | UPBD | Upbound Group Inc | 93% |
| 8 | DEI | Douglas Emmett Inc | 93% |
| 9 | PKN | Revvity Inc | 91% |
| 10 | IMKTA | Ingles Markets Inc-Class A | 91% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Brad Gerstner · Altimeter’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | Robinhood Mkts Inc | 1.09% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 60 |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 0.36% | added last Q | ▲ 57 |
| CRWV | Coreweave Inc | 6.12% | added last Q | · 46 |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Ltd | 8.10% | added last Q | · 45 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Brad Gerstner · Altimeter reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 28.57% | ➕ Added |
| META | Meta Platforms Inc | 19.61% | ✊ Held |
| UBER | Uber Technologies Inc | 10.06% | ➕ Added |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Ltd | 8.10% | ➕ Added |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 7.69% | ✊ Held |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 7.64% | ✊ Held |
| CRWV | Coreweave Inc | 6.12% | ➕ Added |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc | 5.10% | ✊ Held |
| ARM | Arm Holdings Plc | 4.55% | ➕ Added |
| AXON | Axon Enterprise Inc | 1.11% | 🆕 New |
| HOOD | Robinhood Mkts Inc | 1.09% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 0.36% | ➕ Added |
| - | Grab Holdings Limited | 0.00% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 13 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $174.40 | $165–$195 | $207.40 | +18.9% | $148.21 |
| META | $572.13 | $525–$737 | $664.54 | +16.2% | $559.25 |
| UBER | $71.93 | $69–$88 | $74.54 | +3.6% | $66.47 |
| TSM | $337.95 | $316–$386 | $420.39 | +24.4% | $292.71 |
| MSFT | $370.17 | $356–$481 | $385.10 | +4.0% | $365.24 |
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% | $187.72 |
| CRWV | $77.47 | $69–$109 | $73.21 | -5.5% | $82.61 |
| SNOW | $150.82 | $151–$235 | $262.09 | +73.8% | $177.97 |
| ARM | $151.28 | $105–$157 | $267.19 | +76.6% | $119.19 |
| AXON | $424.69 | $400–$642 | $510.28 | +20.2% | $486.79 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
85% of Brad Gerstner · Altimeter’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 12 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.39.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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