Prior Movesmirror the world’s best investors

🪞 Stanley Druckenmiller · Duquesne

Macro, currencies, indexes, themes.

Style
Macro
Disclosed holdings
68
Model accuracy (AUC)
59%
Backtest edge
+1.2 pts/q

Build a basket from the top picks →

🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30

Pure model output for Stanley Druckenmiller · Duquesne’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.

#TickerCompanyModel probability
1RVMDRevolution Medicines Inc97%
2EWBCEast West Bancorp Inc95%
3CAICaris Life Sciences Inc94%
4JBLJabil Inc94%
5BYDBoyd Gaming Corp93%
6PCVXVaxcyte Inc93%
7SOLSSolstice Adv Materials Inc93%
8TSTenaris Sa-Adr92%
9QQnity Electronics Inc92%
10LITELumentum Holdings Inc92%

📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading

Of Stanley Druckenmiller · Duquesne’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.

TickerCompanyWeightLast moveSell likelihood
COHRCoherent Corp0.29%trimmed last Q▲▲▲ 72
BEBloom Energy Corp0.55%trimmed last Q▲▲ 68
UEOWestlake Corporation0.07%trimmed last Q▲▲ 68
INTCIntel Corp0.54%trimmed last Q▲▲ 68
ADMAAdma Biologics Inc0.41%added last Q▲▲ 65
LSCCLattice Semiconductor Corp0.89%trimmed last Q▲▲ 65
SNDKSandisk Corp0.72%trimmed last Q▲▲ 64
-Lyondellbasell Industries Nv0.31%trimmed last Q▲▲ 64

⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Stanley Druckenmiller · Duquesne reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.

📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026

TickerCompanyWeightLast change
NTRANatera Inc18.14%➕ Added
EWZIshares Inc8.71%✊ Held
IM8NInsmed Inc5.59%➖ Trimmed
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufac4.96%✊ Held
RSPInvesco Exchange Traded Fd T4.67%➖ Trimmed
YPFYpf Sociedad Anonima4.43%➕ Added
-Bbb Foods Inc3.26%➕ Added
AAAlcoa Corp2.93%✊ Held
-Newamsterdam Pharma Company2.91%✊ Held
SESea Ltd2.70%➕ Added
STMStmicroelectronics N V2.67%➕ Added
WWDWoodward Inc2.24%➖ Trimmed
TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Inds Ltd2.12%➖ Trimmed
ROKURoku Inc2.10%➕ Added
AVGOBroadcom Inc1.80%➕ Added

Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 68 shown.

💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost

13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.

TickerAvg costAccumulation zoneTodayvs cost
NTRA$199.99$183–$254$269.83+34.9%
TSM$337.95$316–$386$420.39+24.4%
EWZ$38.39$32–$39$35.23-8.2%
RSP$191.92$187–$203$214.30+11.7%
YPF$46.22$33–$46$49.68+7.5%
AA$66.33$56–$66$43.98-33.7%
SE$82.81$78–$143$104.05+25.6%
STM$34.55$27–$35$62.06+79.6%
WWD$357.92$310–$402$394.12+10.1%
TEVA$30.12$28–$36$32.03+6.3%

🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts

13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.

TickerPositionLean
EWZcallsbullish / levered
RSPcallsbullish / levered
SPYcallsbullish / levered
AMZNcallsbullish / levered
IWMcallsbullish / levered

Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.

🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book

72% of Stanley Druckenmiller · Duquesne’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (12 of 13 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.04.

growth
value
large-cap
small-cap
low-quality
quality
contrarian
momentum
aggressive
conservative

⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.

📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500

Avg edge / quarter
+1.2 pts
Quarters beating S&P
15/34
Avg quarterly return
+4.8%
-24%120%264%2017-092021-122025-12This mirror (backtest)S&P 500

⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.

🔔 Follow this mirror

New filings and predicted-buy refreshes are published to every reader at once, weekly digest (email) · build a basket.

Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.