🪞 Stanley Druckenmiller · Duquesne
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Stanley Druckenmiller · Duquesne’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RVMD | Revolution Medicines Inc | 97% |
| 2 | EWBC | East West Bancorp Inc | 95% |
| 3 | CAI | Caris Life Sciences Inc | 94% |
| 4 | JBL | Jabil Inc | 94% |
| 5 | BYD | Boyd Gaming Corp | 93% |
| 6 | PCVX | Vaxcyte Inc | 93% |
| 7 | SOLS | Solstice Adv Materials Inc | 93% |
| 8 | TS | Tenaris Sa-Adr | 92% |
| 9 | Q | Qnity Electronics Inc | 92% |
| 10 | LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc | 92% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Stanley Druckenmiller · Duquesne’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp | 0.29% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 72 |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corp | 0.55% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| UEO | Westlake Corporation | 0.07% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| INTC | Intel Corp | 0.54% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| ADMA | Adma Biologics Inc | 0.41% | added last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
| LSCC | Lattice Semiconductor Corp | 0.89% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp | 0.72% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
| - | Lyondellbasell Industries Nv | 0.31% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Stanley Druckenmiller · Duquesne reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTRA | Natera Inc | 18.14% | ➕ Added |
| EWZ | Ishares Inc | 8.71% | ✊ Held |
| IM8N | Insmed Inc | 5.59% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac | 4.96% | ✊ Held |
| RSP | Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T | 4.67% | ➖ Trimmed |
| YPF | Ypf Sociedad Anonima | 4.43% | ➕ Added |
| - | Bbb Foods Inc | 3.26% | ➕ Added |
| AA | Alcoa Corp | 2.93% | ✊ Held |
| - | Newamsterdam Pharma Company | 2.91% | ✊ Held |
| SE | Sea Ltd | 2.70% | ➕ Added |
| STM | Stmicroelectronics N V | 2.67% | ➕ Added |
| WWD | Woodward Inc | 2.24% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TEVA | Teva Pharmaceutical Inds Ltd | 2.12% | ➖ Trimmed |
| ROKU | Roku Inc | 2.10% | ➕ Added |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 1.80% | ➕ Added |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 68 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRA | $199.99 | $183–$254 | $269.83 | +34.9% |
| TSM | $337.95 | $316–$386 | $420.39 | +24.4% |
| EWZ | $38.39 | $32–$39 | $35.23 | -8.2% |
| RSP | $191.92 | $187–$203 | $214.30 | +11.7% |
| YPF | $46.22 | $33–$46 | $49.68 | +7.5% |
| AA | $66.33 | $56–$66 | $43.98 | -33.7% |
| SE | $82.81 | $78–$143 | $104.05 | +25.6% |
| STM | $34.55 | $27–$35 | $62.06 | +79.6% |
| WWD | $357.92 | $310–$402 | $394.12 | +10.1% |
| TEVA | $30.12 | $28–$36 | $32.03 | +6.3% |
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| EWZ | calls | bullish / levered |
| RSP | calls | bullish / levered |
| SPY | calls | bullish / levered |
| AMZN | calls | bullish / levered |
| IWM | calls | bullish / levered |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
72% of Stanley Druckenmiller · Duquesne’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (12 of 13 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.04.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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