🪞 Chuck Akre · Akre Capital
Quality compounders, near-zero turnover.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Chuck Akre · Akre Capital’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | SNOW | Snowflake Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 4 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 5 | PRM | Perimeter Solutions Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 6 | NOW | Servicenow Inc | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 7 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 8 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 9 | FICO | Fair Isaac Corp | 1.4% | 2.3x |
| 10 | DTE | Dte Energy Company | 1.4% | 2.3x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Chuck Akre · Akre Capital’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | American Tower Corp New | 0.09% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc | 3.31% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 60 |
| BN | Brookfield Corp | 10.08% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 56 |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | 19.95% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 51 |
| V | Visa Inc | 7.44% | trimmed last Q | · 49 |
| ORLY | Oreilly Automotive Inc | 3.89% | trimmed last Q | · 49 |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 10.23% | held flat | · 48 |
| KKR | Kkr & Co L P Del | 8.93% | trimmed last Q | · 47 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Chuck Akre · Akre Capital reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | 19.95% | ➖ Trimmed |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 10.23% | ✊ Held |
| BN | Brookfield Corp | 10.08% | ➖ Trimmed |
| KKR | Kkr & Co L P Del | 8.93% | ➖ Trimmed |
| FICO | Fair Isaac Corp | 8.44% | ✊ Held |
| ROP | Roper Technologies Inc | 7.77% | ✊ Held |
| V | Visa Inc | 7.44% | ➖ Trimmed |
| CSGP | Costar Group Inc | 6.47% | ➕ Added |
| CPRT | Copart Inc | 4.39% | ✊ Held |
| ORLY | Oreilly Automotive Inc | 3.89% | ➖ Trimmed |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc | 3.31% | ➖ Trimmed |
| CCC | Ccc Intelligent Solutions Hl | 3.01% | ✊ Held |
| CRM | Salesforce Inc | 2.50% | ✊ Held |
| NOW | Servicenow Inc | 2.42% | ➕ Added |
| GSHD | Goosehead Ins Inc | 0.42% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 19 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | $513.60 | $471–$524 | $591.73 | +15.2% | $414.50 |
| BN | $42.59 | $40–$47 | $41.22 | -3.2% | $37.51 |
| KKR | $91.78 | $89–$106 | $109.32 | +19.1% | $83.41 |
| FICO | $1194.78 | $922–$1296 | $1147.21 | -4.0% | $1024.77 |
| ROP | $338.39 | $315–$364 | $426.20 | +25.9% | $287.60 |
| V | $343.09 | $297–$342 | $379.66 | +10.7% | $270.71 |
| CSGP | $28.32 | $28–$41 | $31.34 | +10.7% | $32.55 |
| CPRT | $28.19 | $28–$34 | $32.76 | +16.2% | $27.19 |
| ORLY | $92.09 | $86–$99 | $87.83 | -4.6% | $78.58 |
| ABNB | $143.10 | $125–$147 | $183.22 | +28.0% | $116.34 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| CRM | calls | bullish / levered |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
69% of Chuck Akre · Akre Capital’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (15 of 15 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 0.91.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +2.2 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 35 complete quarters (2017Q3 to 2026Q1), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.3; 95% CI includes zero). Most of that average is one quarter: 2026Q1 posted a +47.5 pt edge, roughly half of it two AI-hardware names (SNDK +258%, AMD +186%) marked at what proved to be a local peak; excluding it the edge is +0.9 pts/quarter. Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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