🪞 Chuck Akre · Akre Capital
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Chuck Akre · Akre Capital’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NOW | Servicenow Inc | 99% |
| 2 | PRM | Perimeter Solutions Inc | 98% |
| 3 | BIGGQ | Big Lots Inc | 98% |
| 4 | TMCWW | Tmc The Metals Co Inc -Cw25I | 94% |
| 5 | DENN | Denny'S Corp | 92% |
| 6 | CLGX | Corelogic Inc | 91% |
| 7 | PRSP | Perspecta Inc | 91% |
| 8 | PFPT | Proofpoint Inc | 91% |
| 9 | MXIM | Maxim Integrated Products | 91% |
| 10 | MOV | Movado Group Inc | 91% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Chuck Akre · Akre Capital’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | Salesforce Inc | 2.49% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| - | American Tower Corp New | 0.14% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc | 4.19% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 58 |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | 18.58% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 58 |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 8.86% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 56 |
| - | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 0.08% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 54 |
| PRM | Perimeter Solutions Inc | 0.10% | just entered | ▲ 52 |
| BN | Brookfield Corp | 11.23% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 52 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Chuck Akre · Akre Capital reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | 18.58% | ➖ Trimmed |
| BN | Brookfield Corp | 11.23% | ➖ Trimmed |
| KKR | Kkr & Co L P Del | 10.13% | ➖ Trimmed |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 8.86% | ➖ Trimmed |
| V | Visa Inc | 8.07% | ➖ Trimmed |
| ROP | Roper Technologies Inc | 7.25% | ➕ Added |
| CSGP | Costar Group Inc | 6.80% | ✊ Held |
| FICO | Fair Isaac Corp | 6.33% | ➕ Added |
| ORLY | Oreilly Automotive Inc | 5.85% | ➖ Trimmed |
| CPRT | Copart Inc | 4.33% | ✊ Held |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc | 4.19% | ➖ Trimmed |
| CCC | Ccc Intelligent Solutions Hl | 3.08% | ➕ Added |
| CRM | Salesforce Inc | 2.49% | ➖ Trimmed |
| NOW | Servicenow Inc | 1.87% | 🆕 New |
| GSHD | Goosehead Ins Inc | 0.31% | ➕ Added |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 19 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | $499.66 | $483–$578 | $551.54 | +10.4% | $458.19 |
| BN | $40.47 | $38–$49 | $44.47 | +9.9% | $38.88 |
| KKR | $92.50 | $84–$135 | $100.94 | +9.1% | $107.35 |
| V | $302.24 | $295–$356 | $348.97 | +15.5% | $282.52 |
| ROP | $353.86 | $314–$435 | $346.65 | -2.0% | $345.44 |
| CSGP | $40.34 | $40–$67 | $29.78 | -26.2% | $53.32 |
| FICO | $1067.54 | $995–$1666 | $1210.52 | +13.4% | $1321.43 |
| ORLY | $92.31 | $87–$101 | $85.12 | -7.8% | $80.43 |
| CPRT | $33.20 | $32–$42 | $27.61 | -16.8% | $32.96 |
| ABNB | $126.28 | $116–$140 | $147.80 | +17.0% | $111.13 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| CRM | calls | bullish / levered |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
72% of Chuck Akre · Akre Capital’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (15 of 15 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.94.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
📈 This mirror’s track: backtest vs S&P 500
⚠️ Read this honestly. Leak-free walk-forward backtest: top-10 predicted new buys ranked from a broad ~2,000-name universe known at the rebalance date, equal-weight, 1-quarter holds, complete quarters only, gross (before costs). Small samples, per-investor edges are noisy and not statistically significant. The consensus mirror's backtest shows +1.8 pts/quarter net vs the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014–2026), directional, NOT statistically significant (t≈1.4; 95% CI includes zero). Past performance does not predict future results. Not investment advice.
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