🪞 Chris Hohn · TCI
Concentrated activist, very high conviction.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Chris Hohn · TCI’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | VMC | Vulcan Materials Co | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 5 | TME | Tencent Music Entertainm-Adr | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 6 | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange In | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 7 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 8 | CPB | The Campbell'S Company | 1.5% | 2.3x |
| 9 | MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc | 1.4% | 2.3x |
| 10 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.4% | 2.2x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Chris Hohn · TCI’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLM | Martin Marietta Matls Inc | 1.44% | just entered | · 46 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Chris Hohn · TCI reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE | Ge Aerospace | 33.59% | ✊ Held |
| V | Visa Inc | 19.83% | ✊ Held |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 12.30% | ✊ Held |
| SPGI | S&P Global Inc | 10.87% | ✊ Held |
| CP | Canadian Pacific Kansas City | 7.44% | ✊ Held |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 6.65% | ➕ Added |
| - | Ferrovial Nv | 2.72% | ✊ Held |
| CNR | Canadian Natl Ry Co | 2.13% | ✊ Held |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 1.66% | ✊ Held |
| MLM | Martin Marietta Matls Inc | 1.44% | 🆕 New |
| VMC | Vulcan Matls Co | 1.37% | 🆕 New |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 11 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE | $373.73 | $276–$373 | $335.71 | -10.2% | $327.54 |
| V | $343.09 | $297–$342 | $379.66 | +10.7% | $300.50 |
| SPGI | $407.26 | $374–$424 | $436.49 | +7.2% | $371.93 |
| CP | $86.62 | $78–$91 | $93.86 | +8.4% | $79.91 |
| GOOG | $353.33 | $287–$399 | $337.71 | -4.4% | $349.94 |
| CNR | $119.21 | $79–$105 | $102.30 | -14.2% | $91.80 |
| GOOGL | $357.37 | $287–$402 | $340.65 | -4.7% | $353.08 |
| MLM | $576.70 | $532–$634 | $528.59 | -8.3% | $556.67 |
| VMC | $295.01 | $258–$312 | $273.85 | -7.2% | $274.12 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
66% of Chris Hohn · TCI’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (10 of 10 names, ~422 trading days). Market beta 0.85.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.