🪞 Dan Sundheim · D1 Capital
Growth crossover, public + private.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Dan Sundheim · D1 Capital’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 2 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 3 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 4 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 5 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 6 | MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 7 | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 8 | EFX | Equifax Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 9 | DTE | Dte Energy Company | 1.4% | 2.3x |
| 10 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.4% | 2.2x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Dan Sundheim · D1 Capital’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SE | Sea Ltd | 0.46% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| TXN | Texas Instrs Inc | 0.35% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| Q | Qnity Electronics Inc | 0.39% | just entered | ▲▲ 63 |
| TSLA | Tesla Inc | 0.49% | just entered | ▲▲ 63 |
| - | Linde Plc | 0.51% | just entered | ▲▲ 62 |
| SHOP | Shopify Inc | 0.27% | just entered | ▲▲ 62 |
| - | Mercadolibre Inc | 1.35% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| LINE | Lineage Inc | 0.59% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Dan Sundheim · D1 Capital reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Space Exploration Techn Corp | 61.91% | 🆕 New |
| CART | Maplebear Inc | 3.07% | ✊ Held |
| - | James Hardie Inds Plc | 2.07% | ✊ Held |
| - | Nu Hldgs Ltd | 1.71% | ➕ Added |
| - | Johnson Controls Internation | 1.58% | ➕ Added |
| MLB1 | Mercadolibre Inc | 1.35% | ➖ Trimmed |
| USFD | Us Foods Hldg Corp | 1.32% | ✊ Held |
| DHR | Danaher Corp Del | 1.25% | ✊ Held |
| SHW | Sherwin Williams Co | 1.24% | ➕ Added |
| RDDT | Reddit Inc | 1.23% | ✊ Held |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc | 1.18% | ➕ Added |
| KRC | Kilroy Realty Corp | 1.13% | ✊ Held |
| CLH | Clean Harbors Inc | 1.13% | ✊ Held |
| TPD | Somnigroup International Inc | 1.12% | ✊ Held |
| FLS | Flowserve Corp | 1.06% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 55 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CART | $47.35 | $37–$47 | $50.48 | +6.6% |
| USFD | $102.25 | $80–$102 | $107.78 | +5.4% |
| DHR | $190.48 | $162–$198 | $215.36 | +13.1% |
| SHW | $344.32 | $292–$344 | $345.21 | +0.3% |
| RDDT | $173.58 | $135–$184 | $147.81 | -14.8% |
| TMO | $501.36 | $438–$531 | $630.70 | +25.8% |
| KRC | $37.47 | $27–$38 | $36.69 | -2.1% |
| CLH | $298.75 | $276–$314 | $311.81 | +4.4% |
| FLS | $74.16 | $64–$88 | $79.09 | +6.6% |
| APP | $515.23 | $379–$614 | $312.06 | -39.4% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
62% of Dan Sundheim · D1 Capital’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (9 of 11 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 0.91.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.