🪞 Dan Sundheim · D1 Capital
Growth crossover, public + private.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Dan Sundheim · D1 Capital’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PXGBX | Praxair Inc | 99% |
| 2 | TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc | 92% |
| 3 | DASH | Doordash Inc - A | 92% |
| 4 | FERG | Ferguson Enterprises Inc | 92% |
| 5 | CPNG | Coupang Inc | 91% |
| 6 | MLM | Martin Marietta Materials | 91% |
| 7 | VC | Visteon Corp | 89% |
| 8 | OIS | Oil States International Inc | 89% |
| 9 | QEP | Qep Resources Inc | 88% |
| 10 | CLS | Celestica Inc | 88% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Dan Sundheim · D1 Capital’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Asml Hldg Nv | 0.08% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 66 |
| SHW | Sherwin Williams Co | 1.35% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
| ADSK | Autodesk Inc | 0.66% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| CLH | Clean Harbors Inc | 3.42% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 1.20% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transn Hldgs In | 2.82% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| XPO | Xpo Inc | 2.23% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac | 0.99% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Dan Sundheim · D1 Capital reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CART | Maplebear Inc | 7.52% | ✊ Held |
| MLB1 | Mercadolibre Inc | 5.75% | ➕ Added |
| - | James Hardie Inds Plc | 4.77% | ➕ Added |
| DHR | Danaher Corp Del | 3.89% | ➕ Added |
| FLS | Flowserve Corp | 3.84% | ➖ Trimmed |
| USFD | Us Foods Hldg Corp | 3.52% | ✊ Held |
| CLH | Clean Harbors Inc | 3.42% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 3.35% | ➕ Added |
| - | Nu Hldgs Ltd | 3.31% | ➕ Added |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc | 3.17% | 🆕 New |
| TPD | Somnigroup International Inc | 3.09% | ➕ Added |
| TXN | Texas Instrs Inc | 3.03% | ➕ Added |
| SE | Sea Ltd | 2.99% | ➕ Added |
| RDDT | Reddit Inc | 2.95% | ➕ Added |
| KRC | Kilroy Realty Corp | 2.83% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 44 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CART | $37.46 | $33–$45 | $46.23 | +23.4% |
| DHR | $189.60 | $181–$241 | $200.79 | +5.9% |
| FLS | $73.51 | $69–$91 | $68.46 | -6.9% |
| USFD | $92.21 | $75–$102 | $97.05 | +5.2% |
| CLH | $286.73 | $243–$297 | $303.37 | +5.8% |
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% |
| TMO | $491.53 | $464–$638 | $543.19 | +10.5% |
| TXN | $194.14 | $175–$225 | $311.46 | +60.4% |
| SE | $82.81 | $78–$143 | $104.05 | +25.6% |
| RDDT | $134.65 | $122–$259 | $198.03 | +47.1% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
76% of Dan Sundheim · D1 Capital’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 13 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.04.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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