🪞 Starboard
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Starboard’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.8% | 2.8x |
| 3 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 4 | FLS | Flowserve Corp | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 5 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 6 | TME | Tencent Music Entertainm-Adr | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 7 | MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 8 | SNPS | Synopsys Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 9 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 10 | DTE | Dte Energy Company | 1.5% | 2.4x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Starboard’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | Healthcare Rlty Tr | 0.86% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲▲ 71 |
| FLR | Fluor Corp | 1.84% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 69 |
| KMX | Carmax Inc | 3.75% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| TRIP | Tripadvisor Inc | 1.54% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| NWSA | News Corp New | 1.12% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| BLMN | Bloomin Brands Inc | 0.84% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| MTCH | Match Group Inc New | 6.54% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 57 |
| - | Riot Platforms Inc | 6.16% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 57 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Starboard reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Ishares Tr | 15.13% | ➕ Added |
| QRVO | Qorvo Inc | 11.57% | ➖ Trimmed |
| KVUE | Kenvue Inc | 11.54% | ✊ Held |
| DT | Dynatrace Inc | 8.61% | 🆕 New |
| - | Algonquin Power & Utilities | 7.41% | ✊ Held |
| MTCH | Match Group Inc New | 6.54% | ➖ Trimmed |
| ACTG | Acacia Resh Corp | 6.30% | ✊ Held |
| - | Riot Platforms Inc | 6.16% | ➖ Trimmed |
| BILL | Bill Holdings Inc | 5.62% | ✊ Held |
| LW | Lamb Weston Hldgs Inc | 5.47% | ✊ Held |
| KMX | Carmax Inc | 3.75% | ➖ Trimmed |
| FLS | Flowserve Corp | 2.36% | 🆕 New |
| FLR | Fluor Corp | 1.84% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Gpgi Inc | 1.76% | ✊ Held |
| TRIP | Tripadvisor Inc | 1.54% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 21 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QRVO | $93.27 | $77–$108 | $96.18 | +3.1% |
| KVUE | $19.11 | $16–$19 | $18.88 | -1.2% |
| DT | $43.91 | $32–$45 | $53.43 | +21.7% |
| MTCH | $38.05 | $30–$39 | $40.65 | +6.8% |
| ACTG | $4.66 | $5–$5 | $4.44 | -4.7% |
| BILL | $36.16 | $32–$42 | $49.23 | +36.1% |
| LW | $43.18 | $38–$45 | $54.80 | +26.9% |
| KMX | $52.89 | $36–$54 | $62.64 | +18.4% |
| FLS | $74.16 | $64–$88 | $79.09 | +6.6% |
| FLR | $52.39 | $43–$54 | $54.51 | +4.0% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
74% of Starboard’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 11 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 0.99.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.