🪞 Starboard
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Starboard’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KMX | Carmax Inc | 90% |
| 2 | BMY-R | Bristol-Myers Squibb-Cvr | 86% |
| 3 | VSH | Vishay Intertechnology Inc | 86% |
| 4 | GWPH | Gw Pharmaceuticals Ltd | 86% |
| 5 | IPHI | Inphi Corp | 86% |
| 6 | GKD | Grand Canyon Education Inc | 86% |
| 7 | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate Etf | 82% |
| 8 | DUOL | Duolingo | 80% |
| 9 | MAC | Macerich Co/The | 79% |
| 10 | GPI | Group 1 Automotive Inc | 79% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Starboard’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWAN | Clearwater Analytics Hldgs I | 2.82% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
| FLR | Fluor Corp | 2.94% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| HR | Healthcare Rlty Tr | 2.53% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| BDX | Becton Dickinson & Co | 2.19% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| - | Rogers Corp | 1.37% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 57 |
| NWS | News Corp New | 1.61% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 55 |
| HYG | Ishares Tr | 0.07% | just entered | ▲ 51 |
| - | Ishares Tr | 8.61% | added last Q | · 48 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Starboard reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| QRVO | Qorvo Inc | 12.71% | ✊ Held |
| KVUE | Kenvue Inc | 10.29% | ✊ Held |
| - | Ishares Tr | 8.61% | ➕ Added |
| - | Algonquin Pwr Utils Corp | 7.68% | ✊ Held |
| MTCH | Match Group Inc New | 7.65% | ✊ Held |
| ACTG | Acacia Resh Corp | 6.43% | ✊ Held |
| BILL | Bill Holdings Inc | 5.88% | ✊ Held |
| LW | Lamb Weston Hldgs Inc | 5.65% | 🆕 New |
| KMX | Carmax Inc | 5.64% | 🆕 New |
| - | Riot Platforms Inc | 4.22% | ➕ Added |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc | 3.21% | ➖ Trimmed |
| NWSA | News Corp New | 3.05% | ✊ Held |
| FLR | Fluor Corp | 2.94% | ➖ Trimmed |
| CWAN | Clearwater Analytics Hldgs I | 2.82% | ➖ Trimmed |
| HR | Healthcare Rlty Tr | 2.53% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 25 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QRVO | $77.40 | $76–$88 | $87.13 | +12.6% |
| KVUE | $17.24 | $16–$19 | $18.98 | +10.1% |
| MTCH | $30.71 | $29–$32 | $40.11 | +30.6% |
| ACTG | $4.81 | $4–$5 | $4.47 | -7.1% |
| BILL | $38.30 | $36–$56 | $41.37 | +8.0% |
| LW | $42.26 | $40–$50 | $45.55 | +7.8% |
| KMX | $41.58 | $39–$49 | $57.33 | +37.9% |
| GEN | $18.83 | $18–$27 | $27.01 | +43.4% |
| NWSA | $24.93 | $22–$27 | $28.68 | +15.1% |
| FLR | $46.65 | $42–$54 | $49.51 | +6.1% |
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| HYG | puts | bearish / hedge |
| IWM | puts | bearish / hedge |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
74% of Starboard’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 12 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.00.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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