🪞 Southeastern
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Southeastern’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | TME | Tencent Music Entertainm-Adr | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 5 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 6 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 7 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.5% | 2.3x |
| 8 | CPB | The Campbell'S Company | 1.4% | 2.2x |
| 9 | GLIBK | Liberty Capital Corp-Cl C | 1.3% | 2.1x |
| 10 | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange In | 1.3% | 2x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Southeastern’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Acm Resh Inc | 0.92% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 70 |
| - | Magnum Ice Cream Co Nv | 0.91% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| - | Sharkninja Inc | 0.50% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| - | New Oriental Ed & Technology | 0.99% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 3.98% | just entered | ▲▲ 61 |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations I | 4.83% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| TRIP | Tripadvisor Inc | 1.62% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 60 |
| MGM | Mgm Resorts International | 2.92% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 54 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Southeastern reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| RYN | Rayonier Inc | 10.54% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MAT | Mattel Inc | 8.92% | ✊ Held |
| CNX | Cnx Res Corp | 8.25% | ➕ Added |
| - | People Inc | 7.54% | ➖ Trimmed |
| ACI | Albertsons Companies Inc | 6.09% | ➕ Added |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | 4.95% | ➕ Added |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations I | 4.83% | ➖ Trimmed |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 4.45% | ✊ Held |
| ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 3.98% | 🆕 New |
| FDX | Fedex Corp | 3.18% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MGM | Mgm Resorts International | 2.92% | ➖ Trimmed |
| ESRT | Empire St Rlty Tr Inc | 2.45% | ➕ Added |
| AVTR | Avantor Inc | 2.44% | ➕ Added |
| PVH | Pvh Corporation | 2.44% | ➖ Trimmed |
| GLIBK | Liberty Cap Corp | 2.18% | ➕ Added |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 47 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RYN | $21.28 | $20–$22 | $20.63 | -3.1% | $12.89 |
| MAT | $13.88 | $14–$15 | $14.92 | +7.5% | $9.06 |
| CNX | $33.93 | $32–$40 | $36.38 | +7.2% | $23.39 |
| ACI | $13.53 | $13–$18 | $12.35 | -8.7% | $10.36 |
| REGN | $623.54 | $600–$775 | $807.71 | +29.5% | $456.10 |
| FBIN | $54.90 | $33–$55 | $45.31 | -17.5% | $32.12 |
| KHC | $23.62 | $22–$24 | $25.13 | +6.4% | $14.35 |
| ABT | $90.74 | $82–$102 | $110.36 | +21.6% | $60.12 |
| FDX | $313.13 | $286–$337 | $327.40 | +4.6% | $198.57 |
| MGM | $47.81 | $36–$51 | $42.97 | -10.1% | $29.82 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
70% of Southeastern’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (13 of 14 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 0.74.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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