Prior Movesmirror the world’s best investors

🪞 Southeastern

Style
Value & quality
Disclosed holdings
49
Model accuracy (AUC)
62%
Backtest edge
-

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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30

Pure model output for Southeastern’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.

#TickerCompanyModel probability
1GSITGsi Technology Inc87%
2LBEURL Brands Inc87%
3CSODCornerstone Ondemand Inc87%
4MSGNMsg Networks Inc- A87%
5XPEVXpeng Inc - Adr85%
6KDMNKadmon Holdings Inc83%
7EXEELChesapeake Energy Corp -Cw2683%
8SKAASkechers Usa Inc-Cl A77%
9JNPJuniper Networks Inc77%
10OTXOpen Text Corp77%

📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading

Of Southeastern’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.

TickerCompanyWeightLast moveSell likelihood
PYPLPaypal Hldgs Inc0.05%trimmed last Q▲▲ 63
-Acm Resh Inc1.52%trimmed last Q▲▲ 62
FDXFedex Corp4.34%trimmed last Q▲▲ 61
XPOXpo Inc0.06%trimmed last Q 59
-Alexanders Inc1.15%trimmed last Q 58
BUWABio Rad Labs Inc2.23%trimmed last Q 57
REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals4.97%trimmed last Q 55
SAMBoston Beer Inc1.34%trimmed last Q 53

⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Southeastern reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.

📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026

TickerCompanyWeightLast change
RYNRayonier Inc10.92%➕ Added
MATMattel Inc9.16%➕ Added
-Iac Inc7.92%✊ Held
CNXCnx Res Corp7.61%➖ Trimmed
ACIAlbertsons Cos Inc6.22%➕ Added
REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals4.97%➖ Trimmed
KHCKraft Heinz Co4.37%➖ Trimmed
FDXFedex Corp4.34%➖ Trimmed
FBINFortune Brands Innovations I4.13%➕ Added
MGMMgm Resorts International3.03%➖ Trimmed
PVHPvh Corporation2.53%✊ Held
GLIBKGci Liberty Inc2.42%✊ Held
TRIPTripadvisor Inc2.41%➕ Added
BUWABio Rad Labs Inc2.23%➖ Trimmed
-Shenandoah Telecommunication2.23%✊ Held

Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 49 shown.

💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost

13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.

TickerAvg costAccumulation zoneTodayvs costDip target
RYN$20.62$19–$24$21.81+5.8%$14.28
MAT$14.53$14–$22$13.86-4.6%$13.16
CNX$38.55$35–$43$33.28-13.7%$25.31
ACI$17.04$16–$18$15.11-11.3%$10.97
REGN$772.64$731–$810$649.81-15.9%$481.23
KHC$22.49$21–$24$25.88+15.1%$14.34
FDX$356.18$234–$311$312.98-12.1%$184.52
FBIN$38.97$37–$64$51.61+32.4%$37.82
MGM$37.01$33–$38$46.88+26.7%$22.61
GLIBK$37.21$35–$40$21.93-41.1%$23.79

Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.

🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book

70% of Southeastern’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 13 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.80.

growth
value
large-cap
small-cap
low-quality
quality
contrarian
momentum
aggressive
conservative

⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.

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