🪞 Norbert Lou · Punch Card
Ultra-concentrated value (3–5 names).
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Norbert Lou · Punch Card’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EIX | Edison International | 98% |
| 2 | MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems Inc | 97% |
| 3 | PHM | Pultegroup Inc | 97% |
| 4 | OKE | Oneok Inc | 96% |
| 5 | TSCO | Tractor Supply Company | 96% |
| 6 | IR | Ingersoll-Rand Inc | 96% |
| 7 | CTSH | Cognizant Tech Solutions-A | 96% |
| 8 | URBN | Urban Outfitters Inc | 96% |
| 9 | AEE | Ameren Corporation | 96% |
| 10 | EWTX | Edgewise Therapeutics Inc | 95% |
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRK/A | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 38.47% | ✊ Held |
| CROX | Crocs Inc | 18.24% | ✊ Held |
| SGOV | Ishares Tr | 17.11% | ➖ Trimmed |
| PDD | Pdd Holdings Inc | 15.67% | ✊ Held |
| PYPL | Paypal Hldgs Inc | 10.51% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 5 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-A | $718140.00 | $703700–$762570 | $745140.00 | +3.8% |
| CROX | $83.02 | $76–$100 | $137.13 | +65.2% |
| SGOV | $100.66 | $99–$99 | $100.50 | -0.2% |
| PDD | $102.18 | $96–$123 | $85.74 | -16.1% |
| PYPL | $45.23 | $39–$59 | $47.37 | +4.7% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
33% of Norbert Lou · Punch Card’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (4 of 4 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.71.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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