🪞 Dev Kantesaria · Valley Forge
Concentrated quality.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
Build a basket from the top picks →
🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Dev Kantesaria · Valley Forge’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | EFX | Equifax Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 5 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 6 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 7 | INTC | Intel Corp | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 8 | DTE | Dte Energy Company | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 9 | SNOW | Snowflake Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 10 | CPB | The Campbell'S Company | 1.5% | 2.3x |
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FICO | Fair Isaac Corp | 25.77% | ➖ Trimmed |
| SPGI | S&P Global Inc | 19.92% | ➖ Trimmed |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 19.14% | ✊ Held |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | 17.57% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Asml Hldg Nv | 10.92% | ✊ Held |
| V | Visa Inc | 5.10% | ➖ Trimmed |
| INTU | Intuit | 1.58% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 7 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FICO | $1194.78 | $922–$1296 | $1147.21 | -4.0% |
| SPGI | $407.26 | $374–$424 | $436.49 | +7.2% |
| MA | $513.60 | $471–$524 | $591.73 | +15.2% |
| V | $343.09 | $297–$342 | $379.66 | +10.7% |
| INTU | $261.00 | $254–$429 | $357.46 | +37.0% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
37% of Dev Kantesaria · Valley Forge’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (6 of 6 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 0.73.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
🔔 Follow this mirror
New filings and predicted-buy refreshes are published to every reader at once, weekly digest (email) · build a basket.
Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.