🪞 Dev Kantesaria · Valley Forge
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Dev Kantesaria · Valley Forge’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SPG | Simon Property Group Inc | 72% |
| 2 | MTOR | Meritor Inc | 59% |
| 3 | MED | Medifast Inc | 59% |
| 4 | WEP | Magellan Midstream Partners | 56% |
| 5 | SONY | Sony Group Corp - Sp Adr | 56% |
| 6 | FRCB | First Republic Bank/Ca | 56% |
| 7 | NWL | Newell Brands Inc | 37% |
| 8 | SNI | Scripps Networks Inter-Cl A | 36% |
| 9 | VC | Visteon Corp | 34% |
| 10 | OIS | Oil States International Inc | 34% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Dev Kantesaria · Valley Forge’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Asml Holding N V | 6.69% | added last Q | · 48 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Dev Kantesaria · Valley Forge reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FICO | Fair Isaac Corp | 24.33% | ✊ Held |
| SPGI | S&P Global Inc | 22.15% | ✊ Held |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | 22.02% | ✊ Held |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 17.02% | ✊ Held |
| - | Asml Holding N V | 6.69% | ➕ Added |
| V | Visa Inc | 5.36% | ➖ Trimmed |
| INTU | Intuit | 2.42% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 7 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FICO | $1067.54 | $995–$1666 | $1210.52 | +13.4% |
| SPGI | $425.34 | $368–$514 | $430.50 | +1.2% |
| MA | $499.66 | $483–$578 | $551.54 | +10.4% |
| V | $302.24 | $295–$356 | $348.97 | +15.5% |
| INTU | $432.38 | $356–$647 | $294.79 | -31.8% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
40% of Dev Kantesaria · Valley Forge’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (6 of 6 names, ~452 trading days). Market beta 0.76.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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