🪞 Hosking
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Hosking’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VLO | Valero Energy Corp | 98% |
| 2 | PSX | Phillips 66 | 98% |
| 3 | EXEEZ | Chesapeake Energy -Cw26 | 96% |
| 4 | WSO | Watsco Inc | 91% |
| 5 | EXEEL | Chesapeake Energy Corp -Cw26 | 60% |
| 6 | RYN | Rayonier Inc | 55% |
| 7 | SKAA | Skechers Usa Inc-Cl A | 54% |
| 8 | OTX | Open Text Corp | 54% |
| 9 | JNP | Juniper Networks Inc | 54% |
| 10 | CLV | Trip.Com Group Ltd-Adr | 48% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Hosking’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Holdings Inc C | 0.02% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Holdings Inc A | 0.01% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| - | Trupanion Inc | 0.28% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 58 |
| - | Arlo Technologies, Inc. | 0.59% | added last Q | ▲ 57 |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | 0.82% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 57 |
| SIRI | Liberty Sirius Xm Holdings Inc | 0.02% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 56 |
| CVE | Cenovus Energy Inc. | 0.78% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 55 |
| - | Firstcash Holdings, Inc. | 0.27% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 54 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Hosking reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. Class C | 4.91% | ✊ Held |
| TRVC | Citigroup Inc. | 4.58% | ✊ Held |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 3.04% | ➖ Trimmed |
| FCX | Freeport-Mcmoran, Inc. | 3.03% | ✊ Held |
| IBKR | Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A | 2.87% | ✊ Held |
| AMZN | Amazon.Com, Inc. | 2.83% | ➖ Trimmed |
| BRK/B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B | 2.63% | ✊ Held |
| - | Lyondellbasell Industries Nv | 2.49% | ➕ Added |
| CBRE | Cbre Group, Inc. Class A | 2.38% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AIG | American International Group, Inc. | 2.37% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AXP | American Express Company | 2.35% | ✊ Held |
| - | Dht Holdings, Inc. | 2.30% | ✊ Held |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 2.19% | ✊ Held |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | 2.16% | ✊ Held |
| - | Tidewater Inc | 1.98% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 99 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG | $286.86 | $273–$344 | $353.81 | +23.3% | $270.16 |
| MU | $337.84 | $312–$461 | $984.75 | +191.5% | $361.93 |
| FCX | $58.78 | $52–$69 | $58.38 | -0.7% | $53.73 |
| IBKR | $67.07 | $64–$78 | $92.21 | +37.5% | $61.38 |
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% | $194.02 |
| BRK-B | $479.20 | $468–$508 | $490.91 | +2.4% | $398.50 |
| CBRE | $135.46 | $132–$172 | $133.13 | -1.7% | $134.60 |
| AIG | $75.25 | $71–$83 | $78.03 | +3.7% | $65.36 |
| AXP | $302.48 | $291–$381 | $355.35 | +17.5% | $299.07 |
| HCC | $93.15 | $77–$102 | $78.91 | -15.3% | $80.20 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
83% of Hosking’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (10 of 11 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.21.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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