🪞 Hosking
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Hosking’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | WSO | Watsco Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 4 | LOMA | Loma Negra Cia Ind-Spon Adr | 1.3% | 2.1x |
| 5 | FNKO | Funko Inc-Class A | 1.2% | 2x |
| 6 | CVE | Cenovus Energy Inc | 1.2% | 2x |
| 7 | LLYVA | Liberty Live Holdings-A | 1.2% | 1.9x |
| 8 | NDQ | Invesco Qqq Trust Series 1 | 1.1% | 1.8x |
| 9 | VIST | Vista Energy Sab De Cv | 1.1% | 1.8x |
| 10 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.1% | 1.7x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Hosking’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | 1.22% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| LPX | Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | 1.05% | added last Q | ▲ 57 |
| - | Seagate Technology Holdings Plc | 1.73% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 57 |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | 0.58% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 54 |
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | 0.62% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 54 |
| RRC | Range Resources Corporation | 0.15% | just entered | ▲ 54 |
| - | Seadrill Ltd | 0.89% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 53 |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | 2.21% | added last Q | ▲ 52 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Hosking reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
Hosking files early: typically ~day 35 after quarter end against the day-45 deadline, so this mirror refreshes about 1 weeks before most of the roster.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 7.38% | ➖ Trimmed |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. Class C | 5.03% | ➖ Trimmed |
| TRVC | Citigroup Inc. | 4.77% | ✊ Held |
| IBKR | Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A | 3.07% | ➖ Trimmed |
| FCX | Freeport-Mcmoran, Inc. | 2.84% | ✊ Held |
| BRK/B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B | 2.50% | ✊ Held |
| GLW | Corning Inc | 2.38% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AXP | American Express Company | 2.36% | ✊ Held |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | 2.21% | ➕ Added |
| CBRE | Cbre Group, Inc. Class A | 2.20% | ✊ Held |
| AIG | American International Group, Inc. | 2.05% | ✊ Held |
| AMZN | Amazon.Com, Inc. | 1.94% | ➖ Trimmed |
| ELV | Elevance Health, Inc. | 1.93% | ✊ Held |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | 1.83% | ✊ Held |
| SYF | Synchrony Financial | 1.78% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 98 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | $1154.29 | $338–$1213 | $958.73 | -16.9% | $950.90 |
| GOOG | $353.33 | $287–$399 | $337.71 | -4.4% | $312.53 |
| IBKR | $87.04 | $67–$97 | $93.87 | +7.8% | $75.88 |
| FCX | $62.89 | $55–$72 | $78.42 | +24.7% | $56.07 |
| BRK-B | $500.39 | $465–$500 | $503.70 | +0.7% | $392.15 |
| GLW | $255.43 | $136–$256 | $148.73 | -41.8% | $200.38 |
| AXP | $338.25 | $299–$342 | $330.17 | -2.4% | $267.73 |
| BKNG | $178.24 | $154–$192 | $199.09 | +11.7% | $150.11 |
| CBRE | $134.69 | $125–$154 | $145.81 | +8.3% | $120.31 |
| AIG | $74.53 | $72–$78 | $76.36 | +2.5% | $61.32 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
80% of Hosking’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (13 of 14 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 1.31.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.