🪞 Li Lu · Himalaya Capital
Concentrated value. Li Lu, Munger's pick.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Li Lu · Himalaya Capital’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MLCO | Melco Resorts & Entert-Adr | 98% |
| 2 | CPRT | Copart Inc | 95% |
| 3 | CBRE | Cbre Group Inc - A | 94% |
| 4 | JEF | Jefferies Financial Group In | 94% |
| 5 | TME | Tencent Music Entertainm-Adr | 94% |
| 6 | MSCI | Msci Inc | 93% |
| 7 | SPGI | S&P Global Inc | 93% |
| 8 | OPLN | Openlane Inc | 93% |
| 9 | FWONK | Liberty Media Corp-Formula-C | 92% |
| 10 | BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc | 91% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Li Lu · Himalaya Capital’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Bk Of America Corp | 4.57% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| MSCI | Msci Inc | 0.32% | just entered | ▲ 51 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Li Lu · Himalaya Capital reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 22.85% | ✊ Held |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 21.97% | ✊ Held |
| PDD | Pdd Holdings Inc | 14.71% | ✊ Held |
| BRK/B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 13.44% | ✊ Held |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp Inc | 9.26% | ✊ Held |
| BAC | Bk Of America Corp | 4.57% | ➖ Trimmed |
| OXY | Occidental Pete Corp | 2.98% | ✊ Held |
| CROX | Crocs Inc | 2.30% | ➕ Added |
| TME | Tencent Music Entmt Group | 1.91% | 🆕 New |
| SPGI | S&P Global Inc | 1.61% | 🆕 New |
| HRB | Block H & R Inc | 1.61% | 🆕 New |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 1.61% | 🆕 New |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 0.88% | ✊ Held |
| MSCI | Msci Inc | 0.32% | 🆕 New |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 14 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | $287.56 | $273–$343 | $346.77 | +20.6% | $219.11 |
| GOOG | $286.86 | $273–$344 | $353.81 | +23.3% | $219.88 |
| PDD | $102.18 | $96–$123 | $85.74 | -16.1% | $78.30 |
| BRK-B | $479.20 | $468–$508 | $490.91 | +2.4% | $324.34 |
| EWBC | $106.76 | $103–$122 | $131.21 | +22.9% | $77.74 |
| BAC | $48.75 | $46–$57 | $61.27 | +25.7% | $36.15 |
| OXY | $65.00 | $41–$66 | $53.77 | -17.3% | $42.09 |
| CROX | $83.02 | $76–$100 | $137.13 | +65.2% | $63.86 |
| TME | $9.28 | $9–$18 | $8.86 | -4.5% | $11.49 |
| SPGI | $425.34 | $368–$514 | $430.50 | +1.2% | $328.43 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
56% of Li Lu · Himalaya Capital’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (13 of 13 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.99.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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