🪞 Engaged
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Engaged’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PWR | Quanta Services Inc | 83% |
| 2 | JBHT | Hunt (Jb) Transprt Svcs Inc | 74% |
| 3 | NTR | Nutrien Ltd | 74% |
| 4 | ENB | Enbridge Inc | 66% |
| 5 | THS | Treehouse Foods Inc | 65% |
| 6 | FTCHQ | Farfetch Ltd-Class A | 65% |
| 7 | IQ | Iqiyi Inc-Adr | 65% |
| 8 | GRBK | Green Brick Partners Inc | 65% |
| 9 | DISH | Dish Network Corp-A | 65% |
| 10 | FIVN | Five9 Inc | 61% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Engaged’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGNX | Cognex Corp | 7.81% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| - | Portillos Inc | 6.00% | added last Q | ▲ 51 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Engaged reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| VFC | V F Corp | 26.20% | ➖ Trimmed |
| YETI | Yeti Hldgs Inc | 21.52% | ➖ Trimmed |
| BL | Blackline Inc | 16.68% | ➕ Added |
| - | Gxo Logistics Incorporated | 14.04% | ✊ Held |
| CGNX | Cognex Corp | 7.81% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Portillos Inc | 6.00% | ➕ Added |
| EVH | Evolent Health Inc | 4.18% | ✊ Held |
| - | Brc Inc | 3.57% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 8 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VFC | $16.99 | $16–$21 | $16.50 | -2.9% |
| YETI | $36.59 | $36–$51 | $51.05 | +39.5% |
| BL | $37.00 | $33–$58 | $29.11 | -21.3% |
| CGNX | $48.99 | $37–$59 | $63.24 | +29.1% |
| EVH | $2.28 | $2–$4 | $6.19 | +171.5% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
64% of Engaged’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (5 of 5 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.39.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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