🪞 Engaged
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Engaged’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | FRPT | Freshpet Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 4 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 5 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 6 | BRBR | Bellring Brands Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 7 | DTE | Dte Energy Company | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 8 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 9 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.5% | 2.3x |
| 10 | DVN | Devon Energy Corp | 1.4% | 2.3x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Engaged’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGNX | Cognex Corp | 7.51% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| FRPT | Freshpet Inc | 8.76% | just entered | ▲ 60 |
| BL | Blackline Inc | 7.10% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 55 |
| YETI | Yeti Hldgs Inc | 18.09% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 54 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Engaged reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| VFC | V F Corp | 23.06% | ✊ Held |
| YETI | Yeti Hldgs Inc | 18.09% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Gxo Logistics Incorporated | 15.26% | ➕ Added |
| EVH | Evolent Health Inc | 9.22% | ✊ Held |
| FRPT | Freshpet Inc | 8.76% | 🆕 New |
| CGNX | Cognex Corp | 7.51% | ➖ Trimmed |
| BL | Blackline Inc | 7.10% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Portillos Inc | 4.99% | ✊ Held |
| - | Brc Inc | 4.73% | ✊ Held |
| - | Evolent Health Inc | 1.27% | 🆕 New |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 10 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VFC | $16.68 | $16–$21 | $13.44 | -19.4% |
| YETI | $49.56 | $36–$51 | $41.84 | -15.6% |
| EVH | $5.42 | $2–$6 | $4.50 | -17.0% |
| FRPT | $59.12 | $47–$70 | $69.86 | +18.2% |
| CGNX | $72.42 | $49–$72 | $60.96 | -15.8% |
| BL | $28.07 | $25–$37 | $33.22 | +18.3% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
65% of Engaged’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (6 of 6 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 1.34.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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