🪞 Egerton
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Egerton’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EXEEZ | Chesapeake Energy -Cw26 | 97% |
| 2 | MDLN | Medline Inc-Cl A | 96% |
| 3 | DVN | Devon Energy Corp | 95% |
| 4 | URBN | Urban Outfitters Inc | 95% |
| 5 | CRC | Canadian Natural Resources | 95% |
| 6 | OSK | Oshkosh Corp | 91% |
| 7 | DE | Deere & Co | 90% |
| 8 | MRCY | Mercury Systems Inc | 89% |
| 9 | KLAC | Kla Corp | 89% |
| 10 | APA | Apa Corp | 88% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Egerton’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT | New York Times Co Mtn Be | 0.90% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 5.46% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| - | Arch Cap Group Ltd | 1.19% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 60 |
| FERG | Ferguson Enterprises Inc | 1.64% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| APH | Amphenol Corp | 4.03% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| - | Renaissancere Hldgs Ltd | 1.05% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 58 |
| VMC | Vulcan Matls Co | 5.35% | added last Q | ▲ 51 |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 11.01% | added last Q | ▲ 51 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Egerton reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| V | Visa Inc | 13.79% | ➕ Added |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 11.01% | ➕ Added |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 7.48% | ➕ Added |
| - | Linde Plc | 5.88% | ➕ Added |
| CRS | Carpenter Technology Corp | 5.82% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 5.46% | ➖ Trimmed |
| VMC | Vulcan Matls Co | 5.35% | ➕ Added |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 5.18% | ➕ Added |
| IBKR | Interactive Brokers Group In | 4.67% | ✊ Held |
| APH | Amphenol Corp | 4.03% | ➖ Trimmed |
| CME | Cme Group Inc | 3.88% | ✊ Held |
| UBER | Uber Technologies Inc | 3.71% | ➕ Added |
| DVN | Devon Energy Corp New | 3.64% | 🆕 New |
| - | Crh Plc | 3.22% | ➕ Added |
| CRC | Canadian Nat Res Ltd Med Ter | 3.07% | 🆕 New |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 24 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | $302.24 | $295–$356 | $348.97 | +15.5% |
| GOOG | $286.86 | $273–$344 | $353.81 | +23.3% |
| CRS | $394.15 | $310–$412 | $557.77 | +41.5% |
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% |
| VMC | $272.30 | $257–$329 | $304.84 | +12.0% |
| NVDA | $174.40 | $165–$195 | $207.40 | +18.9% |
| IBKR | $67.07 | $64–$78 | $92.21 | +37.5% |
| APH | $126.35 | $119–$166 | $151.20 | +19.7% |
| CME | $295.35 | $255–$317 | $245.05 | -17.0% |
| UBER | $71.93 | $69–$88 | $74.54 | +3.6% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
88% of Egerton’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (13 of 13 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.00.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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