🪞 Corvex
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Corvex’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PLNT | Planet Fitness Inc - Cl A | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | FWONK | Liberty Media Corp-Formula-C | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 5 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 6 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 7 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 8 | TME | Tencent Music Entertainm-Adr | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 9 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 10 | EFX | Equifax Inc | 1.4% | 2.3x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Corvex’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QSR | Restaurant Brands Intl Inc | 2.80% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| UNP | Union Pac Corp | 2.71% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| FTRE | Fortrea Hldgs Inc | 1.59% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 60 |
| META | Meta Platforms Inc | 6.54% | added last Q | ▲ 57 |
| - | Southwest Gas Hldgs Inc | 8.69% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 54 |
| - | Liberty Media Corp Del | 0.85% | just entered | · 49 |
| - | People Inc | 3.94% | trimmed last Q | · 48 |
| ILMN | Illumina Inc | 15.20% | trimmed last Q | · 47 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Corvex reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILMN | Illumina Inc | 15.20% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Genedx Holdings Corp | 10.03% | ➕ Added |
| VSTS | Vestis Corporation | 8.79% | ✊ Held |
| - | Southwest Gas Hldgs Inc | 8.69% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MGM | Mgm Resorts International | 7.81% | ✊ Held |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 6.59% | ✊ Held |
| META | Meta Platforms Inc | 6.54% | ➕ Added |
| DIS | Disney Walt Co | 6.35% | ✊ Held |
| VST | Vistra Corp | 4.94% | 🆕 New |
| - | People Inc | 3.94% | ➖ Trimmed |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Holdings Inc | 3.11% | ✊ Held |
| CX | Cemex Sa Euro Mtn Be 144A | 3.05% | ✊ Held |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness Master Issuer | 3.02% | 🆕 New |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands Intl Inc | 2.80% | ➖ Trimmed |
| UNP | Union Pac Corp | 2.71% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 24 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILMN | $175.83 | $120–$181 | $213.63 | +21.5% |
| VSTS | $14.52 | $8–$15 | $12.75 | -12.2% |
| MGM | $47.81 | $36–$51 | $42.97 | -10.1% |
| AMZN | $238.34 | $208–$275 | $259.77 | +9.0% |
| DIS | $96.25 | $95–$108 | $106.82 | +11.0% |
| VST | $158.63 | $135–$168 | $139.81 | -11.9% |
| META | $563.29 | $543–$688 | $571.10 | +1.4% |
| LLYVA | $101.26 | $89–$102 | $99.48 | -1.8% |
| CX | $12.00 | $11–$14 | $10.93 | -8.9% |
| PLNT | $52.17 | $44–$74 | $48.26 | -7.5% |
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| META | calls | bullish / levered |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
74% of Corvex’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (12 of 12 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 1.10.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.