🪞 Corvex
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Corvex’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSGP | Costar Group Inc | 91% |
| 2 | SRPT | Sarepta Therapeutics Inc | 77% |
| 3 | BX | Blackstone Inc | 75% |
| 4 | RY | Royal Bank Of Canada | 75% |
| 5 | CHWY | Chewy Inc - Class A | 71% |
| 6 | IYR | Ishares Us Real Estate Etf | 70% |
| 7 | GKD | Grand Canyon Education Inc | 70% |
| 8 | VSH | Vishay Intertechnology Inc | 70% |
| 9 | GWPH | Gw Pharmaceuticals Ltd | 70% |
| 10 | IPHI | Inphi Corp | 70% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Corvex’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNP | Union Pac Corp | 4.67% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 67 |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands Intl Inc | 4.64% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 58 |
| - | Ardagh Metal Packaging S A | 0.05% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 56 |
| DIS | Disney Walt Co | 8.28% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 50 |
| - | Lionsgate Studios Corp | 0.62% | just entered | · 50 |
| - | Southwest Gas Hldgs Inc | 14.92% | trimmed last Q | · 48 |
| CSGP | Costar Group Inc | 1.37% | just entered | · 46 |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 1.94% | trimmed last Q | · 45 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Corvex reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILMN | Illumina Inc | 18.77% | ✊ Held |
| - | Southwest Gas Hldgs Inc | 14.92% | ➖ Trimmed |
| DIS | Disney Walt Co | 8.28% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Genedx Holdings Corp | 8.24% | ✊ Held |
| MGM | Mgm Resorts International | 7.87% | ✊ Held |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 7.31% | ➖ Trimmed |
| VSTS | Vestis Corporation | 6.19% | ✊ Held |
| - | Iac Inc | 5.34% | ✊ Held |
| UNP | Union Pac Corp | 4.67% | ➖ Trimmed |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands Intl Inc | 4.64% | ➖ Trimmed |
| CX | Cemex Sab De Cv | 3.91% | ✊ Held |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Holdings Inc | 3.66% | ✊ Held |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 1.94% | ➖ Trimmed |
| FTRE | Fortrea Hldgs Inc | 1.74% | ✊ Held |
| CSGP | Costar Group Inc | 1.37% | 🆕 New |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 25 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILMN | $123.26 | $114–$154 | $190.05 | +54.2% |
| DIS | $96.38 | $92–$115 | $96.17 | -0.2% |
| MGM | $37.01 | $33–$38 | $46.88 | +26.7% |
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% |
| VSTS | $7.86 | $6–$9 | $14.90 | +89.6% |
| UNP | $242.62 | $219–$266 | $280.94 | +15.8% |
| QSR | $73.90 | $65–$74 | $73.25 | -0.9% |
| CX | $11.44 | $10–$13 | $12.97 | +13.4% |
| LLYVA | $91.64 | $78–$98 | $98.78 | +7.8% |
| MSFT | $370.17 | $356–$481 | $385.10 | +4.0% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
71% of Corvex’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (12 of 12 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.02.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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