🪞 Ariel
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Ariel’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMG | Scotts Miracle-Gro Co | 94% |
| 2 | FITB | Fifth Third Bancorp | 94% |
| 3 | CHR | Churchill Downs Inc | 94% |
| 4 | IYR | Ishares Us Real Estate Etf | 82% |
| 5 | SEIC | Sei Investments Company | 79% |
| 6 | HIMS | Hims & Hers Health Inc | 67% |
| 7 | OPEN | Opendoor Technologies Inc | 63% |
| 8 | MBC | Masterbrand Inc | 62% |
| 9 | CMA | Comerica Inc | 50% |
| 10 | RY | Royal Bank Of Canada | 47% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Ariel’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Vanguard Star Fds | 0.00% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| - | Ishares Tr | 0.00% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 66 |
| - | Vanguard Intl Equity Index F | 0.02% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
| CNP | Centerpoint Energy Inc | 0.23% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 60 |
| RLI | Rli Corp | 0.56% | added last Q | ▲ 58 |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac | 0.06% | added last Q | ▲ 56 |
| FDS | Factset Resh Sys Inc | 0.55% | added last Q | ▲ 56 |
| - | Ishares Tr | 0.14% | added last Q | ▲ 55 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Ariel reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSGE | Madison Square Garden Entmt | 4.03% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Onespaworld Holdings Limited | 3.96% | ➕ Added |
| JLL | Jones Lang Lasalle Inc | 3.49% | ➕ Added |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group | 3.30% | ✊ Held |
| SPHR | Sphere Entertainment Co | 3.24% | ➖ Trimmed |
| NVST | Envista Holdings Corporation | 3.08% | ✊ Held |
| - | Norwegian Cruise Line Hldgs | 3.07% | ✊ Held |
| PBV | Prestige Consmr Healthcare I | 2.84% | ✊ Held |
| GNRC | Generac Hldgs Inc | 2.83% | ✊ Held |
| CRL | Charles Riv Labs Intl Inc | 2.79% | ✊ Held |
| LAZ | Lazard Inc | 2.77% | ✊ Held |
| FAF | First Amern Finl Corp | 2.59% | ✊ Held |
| MSGS | Madison Square Grdn Sprt Cor | 2.58% | ✊ Held |
| CVSA | Covista Inc | 2.49% | ✊ Held |
| - | Core Laboratories Inc | 2.48% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 106 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSGE | $58.91 | $54–$64 | $74.77 | +26.9% | $47.57 |
| JLL | $304.32 | $280–$359 | $321.95 | +5.8% | $265.19 |
| AMG | $276.70 | $269–$331 | $369.83 | +33.7% | $244.54 |
| SPHR | $117.40 | $88–$119 | $137.02 | +16.7% | $87.99 |
| NVST | $25.37 | $22–$30 | $26.99 | +6.4% | $22.37 |
| GNRC | $195.33 | $141–$237 | $233.94 | +19.8% | $174.93 |
| CRL | $172.50 | $152–$227 | $224.35 | +30.1% | $167.67 |
| LAZ | $42.48 | $39–$56 | $43.16 | +1.6% | $41.71 |
| MSGS | $321.40 | $253–$342 | $396.87 | +23.5% | $252.69 |
| FAF | $60.29 | $56–$69 | $73.03 | +21.1% | $51.13 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
79% of Ariel’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 12 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.15.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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