🪞 Ariel
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Ariel’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 2 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 3 | HAE | Haemonetics Corp/Mass | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | IWD | Ishares Russell 1000 Value E | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 5 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 6 | PPL | Ppl Corp | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 7 | XRAY | Dentsply Sirona Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 8 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.4% | 2.3x |
| 9 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.4% | 2.3x |
| 10 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.4% | 2.2x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Ariel’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Royal Caribbean Group | 0.21% | added last Q | ▲▲▲ 77 |
| PGR | Progressive Corp | 0.13% | added last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise C | 0.34% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| VEA | Vanguard Tax-Managed Fds | 0.05% | just entered | ▲▲ 62 |
| VWO | Vanguard Intl Equity Index F | 0.01% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| COF | Capital One Finl Corp | 0.22% | just entered | ▲▲ 62 |
| - | Algonquin Power & Utilities | 0.39% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 60 |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin Corp | 0.06% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Ariel reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSGE | Madison Square Garden Entmt | 4.28% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Onespaworld Holdings Limited | 4.19% | ✊ Held |
| CRL | Charles Riv Labs Intl Inc | 3.41% | ✊ Held |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group | 3.37% | ✊ Held |
| JLL | Jones Lang Lasalle Inc | 3.28% | ✊ Held |
| - | Norwegian Cruise Line Hldgs | 3.25% | ✊ Held |
| GNRC | Generac Hldgs Inc | 2.91% | ➖ Trimmed |
| SPHR | Sphere Entertainment Co | 2.87% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MIDD | Middleby Corp | 2.82% | ✊ Held |
| MSGS | Madison Square Grdn Sprt Cor | 2.64% | ✊ Held |
| NVST | Envista Holdings Corporation | 2.58% | ✊ Held |
| ZBRA | Zebra Technologies Corporati | 2.42% | ➕ Added |
| LAZ | Lazard Inc | 2.41% | ✊ Held |
| BUWA | Bio Rad Labs Inc | 2.39% | ✊ Held |
| PBV | Prestige Consmr Healthcare I | 2.29% | ➕ Added |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 106 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSGE | $80.89 | $58–$81 | $78.15 | -3.4% | $59.03 |
| CRL | $226.79 | $150–$227 | $296.41 | +30.7% | $165.39 |
| AMG | $338.40 | $265–$357 | $368.19 | +8.8% | $260.71 |
| JLL | $309.95 | $282–$353 | $378.75 | +22.2% | $257.78 |
| GNRC | $292.81 | $191–$296 | $185.38 | -36.7% | $215.53 |
| MIDD | $172.01 | $106–$139 | $112.75 | -34.5% | $101.71 |
| SPHR | $173.03 | $117–$173 | $147.34 | -14.8% | $126.19 |
| MSGS | $401.84 | $319–$403 | $406.94 | +1.3% | $293.92 |
| NVST | $26.35 | $22–$28 | $27.44 | +4.1% | $20.31 |
| LAZ | $41.94 | $40–$49 | $43.22 | +3.1% | $35.67 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
81% of Ariel’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 13 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 1.24.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.