What Is Andreas Halvorsen Buying Next? Predicted 13F Moves Before They File
By the time a 13F lands, the trade inside it is old. The filing tells you what Viking Global owned at the end of last quarter, and it can arrive up to 45 days after that quarter closed. The “news” you are reading describes a position that has been on the books for weeks, sometimes months.
Prior Moves estimates the next likely buy before the filing is public, using a model trained on this one investor’s own history. There is a separate model for each tracked investor, and the Andreas Halvorsen model is trained only on Viking Global’s filings (34 quarters of history) plus roughly 290 public signals. Style, in one line: Long-short fundamental (Tiger cub).
The current top predicted buy
Right now the model’s highest-probability next buy for Andreas Halvorsen is HAS (Hasbro Inc), with a predicted buy probability of 92%. The live number, the full candidate list, and the running record of hits and misses are on the Andreas Halvorsen mirror, updated each filing cycle.
What “predicted next buy” means
It is a model’s estimate of where this investor’s pattern points, stated as a probability, ahead of the paperwork that would settle the question. It is never a claim that Andreas Halvorsen has bought the name, or will, or that you should. When the next 13F files, you can check the prediction against the real filing yourself. That test runs in the open on the track record page.
The honest numbers
Across the combined consensus mirror, the backtest shows an edge of about +1.8 points per quarter versus the S&P 500 over 47 complete quarters (2014Q3 to 2026Q1), net of costs. That edge is directional and it is not statistically significant: the t-statistic is about 1.45 and the 95% confidence interval includes zero. Per-investor samples are smaller, so individual scores are noisier still. We publish the misses alongside the hits because hiding them would make every other claim here worth less.
See the live mirror
- Live Andreas Halvorsen mirror: current predicted buys, probabilities, hits and misses.
- The full top picks board across all tracked investors.
- How the model works: methodology.
The predicted next buys, fresh disclosures, and the week’s catalysts. One email a week. Honest numbers, never advice.
About this research: Prior Moves is an independent research publication. Predictions come from a per-investor machine-learning model trained walk-forward on Viking Global’s own SEC filing history; every backtest number is net of costs and published with its confidence interval, including the losing quarters. Full method: how it works · calibration · track record.
Data as of 2026-07-17 · forward quarter 2026-06-30 · refreshed daily. Research, not investment advice.