🪞 Whale Rock
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Whale Rock’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WDC | Western Digital Corp | 96% |
| 2 | LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 96% |
| 3 | WORK | Slack Technologies Inc- Cl A | 95% |
| 4 | MKSI | Mks Inc | 93% |
| 5 | WY | Weyerhaeuser Co | 92% |
| 6 | ARM | Arm Holdings Plc-Adr | 90% |
| 7 | VIAV | Viavi Solutions Inc | 90% |
| 8 | ALXN | Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc | 90% |
| 9 | PCH | Potlatchdeltic Corp | 88% |
| 10 | EXEEZ | Chesapeake Energy -Cw26 | 88% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Whale Rock’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp | 6.56% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| PI | Impinj Inc | 0.54% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 67 |
| CIEN | Ciena Corp | 1.16% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
| GLW | Corning Inc | 4.03% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| - | Ttm Technologies Inc | 4.42% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| RBLX | Roblox Corp | 2.58% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| DUOL | Duolingo Inc | 0.60% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 58 |
| - | Sitime Corp | 2.57% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 58 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Whale Rock reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 9.92% | ➕ Added |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp | 6.56% | ➖ Trimmed |
| CLS | Celestica Inc | 5.52% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 4.89% | ✊ Held |
| - | Ttm Technologies Inc | 4.42% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Advanced Energy Inds | 4.26% | 🆕 New |
| - | Fabrinet | 4.12% | ✊ Held |
| GLW | Corning Inc | 4.03% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MKSI | Mks Inc. | 3.88% | 🆕 New |
| META | Meta Platforms Inc | 3.79% | ✊ Held |
| - | Jfrog Ltd | 3.65% | ➕ Added |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac | 3.58% | ➕ Added |
| APP | Applovin Corp | 3.58% | ➖ Trimmed |
| CVNA | Carvana Co | 3.56% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MTSI | Macom Tech Solutions Hldgs I | 3.37% | ➕ Added |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 35 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | $287.56 | $273–$343 | $346.77 | +20.6% |
| SNDK | $635.34 | $274–$772 | $1354.82 | +113.2% |
| CLS | $281.68 | $250–$345 | $303.86 | +7.9% |
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% |
| GLW | $135.97 | $85–$160 | $158.39 | +16.5% |
| MKSI | $229.81 | $168–$263 | $368.78 | +60.5% |
| META | $572.13 | $525–$737 | $664.54 | +16.2% |
| TSM | $337.95 | $316–$386 | $420.39 | +24.4% |
| APP | $398.00 | $367–$669 | $424.54 | +6.7% |
| MTSI | $222.07 | $168–$259 | $304.82 | +37.3% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
78% of Whale Rock’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 11 names, ~303 trading days). Market beta 1.64.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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