🪞 Whale Rock
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
Build a basket from the top picks →
🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Whale Rock’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 2 | SNOW | Snowflake Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 3 | INTC | Intel Corp | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 5 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 6 | MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 7 | DVN | Devon Energy Corp | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 8 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 9 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 10 | ALAB | Astera Labs Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Whale Rock’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | Intel Corp | 0.29% | just entered | ▲▲ 67 |
| - | Jfrog Ltd | 3.25% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 2.58% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| APP | Applovin Corp | 1.91% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 60 |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 0.18% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 60 |
| MTSI | Macom Tech Solutions Hldgs I | 3.02% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 57 |
| KVYO | Klaviyo Inc | 0.67% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 56 |
| WDC | Western Digital Corp | 2.05% | held flat | ▲ 56 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Whale Rock reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp | 10.89% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc | 7.04% | ➕ Added |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 6.88% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Ttm Technologies Inc | 6.35% | ➕ Added |
| ALAB | Astera Labs Inc | 6.08% | 🆕 New |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 4.68% | ➕ Added |
| GLW | Corning Inc | 4.58% | ✊ Held |
| MKSI | Mks Inc. | 4.54% | ✊ Held |
| CLS | Celestica Inc | 4.32% | ✊ Held |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corp | 3.91% | ✊ Held |
| COHR | Coherent Corp | 3.87% | ➕ Added |
| - | Fabrinet | 3.36% | ➕ Added |
| - | Sitime Corp | 3.36% | ✊ Held |
| - | Jfrog Ltd | 3.25% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MTSI | Macom Tech Solutions Hldgs I | 3.02% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 35 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | $2273.73 | $635–$2335 | $1484.95 | -34.7% |
| AMD | $580.91 | $203–$581 | $470.72 | -19.0% |
| GOOGL | $357.37 | $287–$402 | $340.65 | -4.7% |
| ALAB | $483.02 | $106–$483 | $296.98 | -38.5% |
| AMZN | $238.34 | $208–$275 | $259.77 | +9.0% |
| GLW | $255.43 | $136–$256 | $148.73 | -41.8% |
| MKSI | $444.80 | $229–$444 | $270.99 | -39.1% |
| CLS | $364.80 | $282–$472 | $317.38 | -13.0% |
| BE | $302.70 | $132–$346 | $206.30 | -31.8% |
| COHR | $394.47 | $238–$427 | $295.39 | -25.1% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
69% of Whale Rock’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 11 names, ~303 trading days). Market beta 1.74.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
🔔 Follow this mirror
New filings and predicted-buy refreshes are published to every reader at once, weekly digest (email) · build a basket.
Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.