Guy Spier · Aquamarine
Buffett-style value.
The board ranks candidate holdings for a later filing. The stored hit-rate and lift summaries have not been reconciled to the serving model version, so they are withheld. The ranks are not return forecasts. See the methodology for the separate historical ranking evaluation.
Ranking evidence is model- and population-specific. The current serving board and stored per-investor holdout summaries do not yet have a verified version mapping, so no per-investor hit rate or AUC is shown.
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Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model ranks candidates for Guy Spier · Aquamarine’s next 13F filing. These are expectations, not public confirmations. Rank order is shown while version-specific probability calibration is reviewed.
| # | Ticker | Company |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | DT | Dynatrace Inc |
| 2 | RRC | Range Resources Corp |
| 3 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc |
Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
Guy Spier · Aquamarine files early: typically ~day 16 after quarter end against the day-45 deadline, so this mirror refreshes about 4 weeks before most of the roster.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRKB | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 33.89% | ✊ Held |
| BRKA | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 15.59% | ✊ Held |
| AXP | American Express Co | 15.26% | ✊ Held |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | 14.26% | ✊ Held |
| MCO | Moodys Corp | 8.49% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 7 shown.
Reported value per share: latest filing
13F shows quarter-end holdings, not trades or trade prices. The “Reported $/sh” column is the filing’s reported value ÷ shares, which is the quarter-end price, not what the fund paid. The range is the price band that quarter. A snapshot shows only the net position at two dates, so the fund may have traded more, or at other prices, in between. “vs reported” is today versus that figure, not a future price.
| Ticker | Reported $/sh | Quarter range | Today | vs reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXP | $338.25 | $298 to $341 | $311.53 | -7.9% |
| MA | $513.60 | $470 to $524 | $589.14 | +14.7% |
| MCO | $452.93 | $425 to $467 | $464.13 | +2.5% |
Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
72% of Guy Spier · Aquamarine’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (5 of 7 names, ~390 trading days). Market beta 1.09.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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