🪞 Guy Spier · Aquamarine
Buffett-style value.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Guy Spier · Aquamarine’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 5 | EFX | Equifax Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 6 | DVN | Devon Energy Corp | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 7 | CNR | Core Natural Resources Inc | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 8 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 9 | CPB | The Campbell'S Company | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 10 | DPZ | Domino'S Pizza Inc | 1.5% | 2.4x |
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
Guy Spier · Aquamarine files early: typically ~day 16 after quarter end against the day-45 deadline, so this mirror refreshes about 4 weeks before most of the roster.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRK/B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 33.89% | ✊ Held |
| BRK/A | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 15.59% | ✊ Held |
| AXP | American Express Co | 15.26% | ✊ Held |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | 14.26% | ✊ Held |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 8.49% | ✊ Held |
| - | Ferrari N V | 7.71% | ✊ Held |
| - | Daily Journal Corp | 4.80% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 7 shown.
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