🪞 Paul Singer · Elliott
Activist + distressed.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Paul Singer · Elliott’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CYEUR | Cypress Semiconductor Corp | 100% |
| 2 | LNWO | Light & Wonder Inc | 100% |
| 3 | T | Telus Corp | 99% |
| 4 | EMR | Emerson Electric Co | 95% |
| 5 | FTV | Fortive Corp | 88% |
| 6 | DNB | Dun & Bradstreet Holdings In | 86% |
| 7 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare Co Inc | 81% |
| 8 | GPRO | Gopro Inc-Class A | 69% |
| 9 | SCCO | Southern Copper Corp | 69% |
| 10 | ACM | Aecom | 67% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Paul Singer · Elliott’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDX | Vaneck Etf Trust | 1.67% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| IWD | Ishares Tr | 1.06% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| WPM | Wheaton Precious Metals Corp | 0.07% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 67 |
| HDB | Hdfc Bank Ltd | 0.10% | added last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
| NDQ | Invesco Qqq Tr | 1.15% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| LUV | Southwest Airls Co | 5.67% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| - | Strategy Inc | 0.06% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 61 |
| XLP | Select Sector Spdr Tr | 3.73% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 58 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Paul Singer · Elliott reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Triple Flag Precious Metal | 22.99% | ✊ Held |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | 17.44% | ✊ Held |
| SU | Suncor Energy Inc New | 17.31% | ✊ Held |
| XLI | Select Sector Spdr Tr | 6.03% | ✊ Held |
| LUV | Southwest Airls Co | 5.67% | ➖ Trimmed |
| XLP | Select Sector Spdr Tr | 3.73% | ➖ Trimmed |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise C | 3.25% | ➕ Added |
| - | Uniti Group Llc | 2.75% | ✊ Held |
| PINS | Pinterest Inc | 2.55% | ✊ Held |
| XLY | Select Sector Spdr Tr | 2.33% | ➕ Added |
| HYG | Ishares Tr | 1.98% | ➕ Added |
| GDX | Vaneck Etf Trust | 1.67% | ➖ Trimmed |
| FQI | Digital Rlty Tr Inc | 1.34% | ➕ Added |
| ETSY | Etsy Inc | 1.24% | ✊ Held |
| - | Norwegian Cruise Line Hldgs | 1.23% | 🆕 New |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 32 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSX | $182.18 | $129–$187 | $177.33 | -2.7% |
| SU | $66.11 | $44–$66 | $62.43 | -5.6% |
| XLI | $161.73 | $156–$178 | $185.56 | +14.7% |
| LUV | $37.57 | $36–$54 | $49.25 | +31.1% |
| XLP | $81.98 | $76–$89 | $85.81 | +4.7% |
| HPE | $23.81 | $20–$26 | $45.82 | +92.4% |
| PINS | $18.34 | $15–$28 | $23.20 | +26.5% |
| XLY | $108.98 | $105–$124 | $117.34 | +7.7% |
| HYG | $79.56 | $77–$79 | $79.68 | +0.2% |
| ETSY | $49.98 | $44–$64 | $84.10 | +68.3% |
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| XLI | puts | bearish / hedge |
| XLP | puts | bearish / hedge |
| XLY | puts | bearish / hedge |
| HYG | puts | bearish / hedge |
| GDX | calls | bullish / levered |
| FQI | puts | bearish / hedge |
| NDQ | puts | bearish / hedge |
| IWD | puts | bearish / hedge |
| IWM | puts | bearish / hedge |
| FTV | puts | bearish / hedge |
| EMR | puts | bearish / hedge |
| WPM | calls | bullish / levered |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
63% of Paul Singer · Elliott’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 12 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 0.95.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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