🪞 Paul Singer · Elliott
Activist + distressed.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Paul Singer · Elliott’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 2 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | SNPS | Synopsys Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 5 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 6 | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 7 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 8 | INTC | Intel Corp | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 9 | DVN | Devon Energy Corp | 1.5% | 2.3x |
| 10 | TOST | Toast Inc-Class A | 1.4% | 2.3x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Paul Singer · Elliott’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSP | Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T | 0.37% | just entered | ▲▲ 63 |
| IGV | Ishares Tr | 6.29% | just entered | ▲ 57 |
| SMH | Vaneck Etf Trust | 0.72% | just entered | ▲ 57 |
| LUV | Southwest Airls Co | 5.51% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 56 |
| IWM | Ishares Tr | 0.33% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 56 |
| XLI | Select Sector Spdr Tr | 4.23% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 56 |
| SU | Suncor Energy Inc New | 6.97% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 54 |
| SNPS | Synopsys Inc | 0.45% | just entered | ▲ 51 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Paul Singer · Elliott reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Triple Flag Precious Metal | 17.61% | ✊ Held |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | 14.36% | ✊ Held |
| NDQ | Invesco Qqq Tr | 11.30% | ➕ Added |
| SU | Suncor Energy Inc New | 6.97% | ➖ Trimmed |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise C | 6.42% | ➕ Added |
| IGV | Ishares Tr | 6.29% | 🆕 New |
| LUV | Southwest Airls Co | 5.51% | ➖ Trimmed |
| XLI | Select Sector Spdr Tr | 4.23% | ➖ Trimmed |
| XLY | Select Sector Spdr Tr | 3.67% | ➕ Added |
| XLP | Select Sector Spdr Tr | 3.53% | ✊ Held |
| GDX | Vaneck Etf Trust | 3.05% | ➕ Added |
| - | Ishares Tr | 3.03% | 🆕 New |
| - | Uniti Group Llc | 2.99% | ✊ Held |
| PINS | Pinterest Inc | 2.60% | ✊ Held |
| ETSY | Etsy Inc | 1.66% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 28 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSX | $169.05 | $154–$184 | $239.81 | +41.9% |
| SU | $53.68 | $54–$69 | $66.42 | +23.7% |
| HPE | $45.11 | $24–$56 | $55.23 | +22.4% |
| IGV | $90.60 | $75–$108 | $110.32 | +21.8% |
| LUV | $51.42 | $37–$52 | $39.76 | -22.7% |
| XLI | $185.23 | $161–$185 | $178.80 | -3.5% |
| XLY | $117.28 | $108–$122 | $115.88 | -1.2% |
| XLP | $83.07 | $81–$86 | $84.98 | +2.3% |
| GDX | $75.45 | $74–$101 | $103.69 | +37.4% |
| PINS | $21.03 | $18–$22 | $21.71 | +3.2% |
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| NDQ | puts | bearish / hedge |
| IGV | puts | bearish / hedge |
| XLI | puts | bearish / hedge |
| XLY | puts | bearish / hedge |
| XLP | puts | bearish / hedge |
| GDX | puts | bearish / hedge |
| SMH | puts | bearish / hedge |
| RSP | puts | bearish / hedge |
| IWM | puts | bearish / hedge |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
77% of Paul Singer · Elliott’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 12 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 1.04.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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