🪞 Sachem Head
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
Build a basket from the top picks →
🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Sachem Head’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 2 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 4 | BRKR | Bruker Corp | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 5 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 6 | MKSI | Mks Inc | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 7 | NOW | Servicenow Inc | 1.6% | 2.5x |
| 8 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.5% | 2.5x |
| 9 | DTE | Dte Energy Company | 1.5% | 2.4x |
| 10 | STM | Stmicroelectronics Nv-Ny Shs | 1.5% | 2.3x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Sachem Head’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWLO | Twilio Inc | 2.65% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
| GIL | Gildan Activewear Inc | 3.90% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 60 |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corp | 10.92% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 54 |
| - | Seagate Technology Hldngs Pl | 9.45% | just entered | ▲ 53 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Sachem Head reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLN | Talen Energy Corp | 10.92% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Seagate Technology Hldngs Pl | 9.45% | 🆕 New |
| PRMB | Primo Brands Corporation | 9.02% | ✊ Held |
| PFGC | Performance Food Group Co | 7.77% | ✊ Held |
| MKSI | Mks Inc. | 7.50% | 🆕 New |
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods Inc | 7.01% | ✊ Held |
| CVNA | Carvana Co | 6.11% | ➕ Added |
| SHC | Sotera Health Co | 5.73% | ➕ Added |
| CELH | Celsius Hldgs Inc | 5.52% | 🆕 New |
| GDS | Gds Hldgs Ltd | 5.41% | ✊ Held |
| GIL | Gildan Activewear Inc | 3.90% | ➖ Trimmed |
| - | Golar Lng Ltd | 3.74% | 🆕 New |
| BRKR | Bruker Corp | 3.64% | 🆕 New |
| STM | Stmicroelectronics N V | 3.42% | 🆕 New |
| - | Bitdeer Technologies Group | 3.17% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 19 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLN | $384.26 | $313–$438 | $295.76 | -23.0% | $313.70 |
| PRMB | $24.44 | $18–$25 | $22.44 | -8.2% | $17.79 |
| PFGC | $111.79 | $84–$113 | $102.12 | -8.7% | $80.66 |
| MKSI | $444.80 | $229–$444 | $270.99 | -39.1% | $318.19 |
| DKS | $226.81 | $191–$239 | $131.77 | -41.9% | $171.25 |
| CVNA | $65.82 | $62–$83 | $74.09 | +12.6% | $59.69 |
| SHC | $17.75 | $14–$18 | $19.48 | +9.7% | $12.71 |
| CELH | $29.28 | $28–$36 | $31.45 | +7.4% | $26.05 |
| GDS | $30.03 | $29–$46 | $33.51 | +11.6% | $32.94 |
| GIL | $51.60 | $50–$62 | $53.23 | +3.2% | $44.18 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
72% of Sachem Head’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (12 of 12 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 1.23.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
🔔 Follow this mirror
New filings and predicted-buy refreshes are published to every reader at once, weekly digest (email) · build a basket.
Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.