🪞 Sachem Head
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Sachem Head’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ON | On Semiconductor | 85% |
| 2 | PRMB | Primo Brands Corp | 85% |
| 3 | KW | Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc | 84% |
| 4 | RERE | Atrenew Inc | 84% |
| 5 | ACTG | Acacia Research Corp | 83% |
| 6 | GRFS | Grifols Sa-Adr | 82% |
| 7 | EPAM | Epam Systems Inc | 82% |
| 8 | ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust-A | 80% |
| 9 | RLX | Rlx Technology Inc-Adr | 79% |
| 10 | AKAM | Akamai Technologies Inc | 79% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Sachem Head’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDS | Gds Hldgs Ltd | 8.43% | held flat | ▲▲ 62 |
| COHR | Coherent Corp | 5.54% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 60 |
| SATS | Echostar Corp | 8.47% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
| AKAM | Akamai Technologies Inc | 0.65% | just entered | · 49 |
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods Inc | 7.67% | added last Q | · 46 |
| RSP | Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T | 0.91% | added last Q | · 45 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Sachem Head reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLN | Talen Energy Corp | 11.90% | ➕ Added |
| SATS | Echostar Corp | 8.47% | ➖ Trimmed |
| GDS | Gds Hldgs Ltd | 8.43% | ✊ Held |
| PRMB | Primo Brands Corporation | 7.75% | 🆕 New |
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods Inc | 7.67% | ➕ Added |
| TWLO | Twilio Inc | 6.96% | ✊ Held |
| PFGC | Performance Food Group Co | 6.91% | ✊ Held |
| CVNA | Carvana Co | 5.98% | ➕ Added |
| - | Weatherford Intl Plc | 5.75% | 🆕 New |
| - | Icon Plc | 5.61% | 🆕 New |
| GIL | Gildan Activewear Inc | 5.55% | 🆕 New |
| COHR | Coherent Corp | 5.54% | ➖ Trimmed |
| SHC | Sotera Health Co | 4.02% | ✊ Held |
| ON | On Semiconductor Corp | 2.90% | 🆕 New |
| FUN | Six Flags Entertainment Corp | 2.15% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 19 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLN | $319.23 | $303–$419 | $400.12 | +25.3% |
| GDS | $40.29 | $38–$48 | $32.75 | -18.7% |
| PRMB | $18.83 | $16–$23 | $23.99 | +27.4% |
| DKS | $198.29 | $186–$214 | $217.36 | +9.6% |
| TWLO | $125.82 | $108–$143 | $209.08 | +66.2% |
| PFGC | $85.66 | $81–$99 | $110.41 | +28.9% |
| GIL | $55.65 | $53–$72 | $52.45 | -5.8% |
| COHR | $238.21 | $173–$299 | $277.60 | +16.5% |
| SHC | $14.34 | $13–$19 | $18.42 | +28.5% |
| ON | $61.92 | $56–$72 | $95.96 | +55.0% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
72% of Sachem Head’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (12 of 13 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.23.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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