🪞 Polen
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Polen’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IWO | Ishares Russell 2000 Growth | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 2 | APLD | Applied Digital Corp | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| 3 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.6% | 2.6x |
| 4 | WOLF | Wolfspeed Inc | 1.4% | 2.3x |
| 5 | AORT | Artivion Inc | 1.4% | 2.2x |
| 6 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.4% | 2.2x |
| 7 | FSLY | Fastly Inc - Class A | 1.3% | 2.1x |
| 8 | KBIA | Kb Financial Group Inc-Adr | 1.3% | 2.1x |
| 9 | MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc | 1.3% | 2x |
| 10 | INGN | Inogen Inc | 1.2% | 2x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Polen’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | Visa Inc | 5.34% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| SNPS | Synopsys Inc | 0.16% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| - | Planet Labs Pbc | 0.04% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 66 |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 3.21% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
| UBER | Uber Technologies Inc | 0.35% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 65 |
| ROL | Rollins Inc | 0.57% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 64 |
| - | Flotek Industries Inc | 0.04% | added last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
| - | Veeco Instrs Inc Del | 0.03% | added last Q | ▲▲ 63 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Polen reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co | 6.89% | ➖ Trimmed |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 6.86% | ✊ Held |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 6.74% | ➖ Trimmed |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 6.59% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 6.38% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 5.77% | ➖ Trimmed |
| V | Visa Inc | 5.34% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | 5.05% | ➖ Trimmed |
| NOW | Servicenow Inc | 4.59% | ➖ Trimmed |
| ORCL | Oracle Corp | 4.51% | ➖ Trimmed |
| SHOP | Shopify Inc | 4.50% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MSCI | Msci Inc | 3.24% | ➖ Trimmed |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 3.21% | ➖ Trimmed |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corp | 3.13% | ➖ Trimmed |
| IDXX | Idexx Labs Inc | 2.41% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 150 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | $1199.43 | $849–$1228 | $1156.73 | -3.6% |
| NVDA | $200.09 | $174–$235 | $220.78 | +10.3% |
| MSFT | $373.02 | $352–$460 | $505.06 | +35.4% |
| GOOG | $353.33 | $287–$399 | $337.71 | -4.4% |
| AVGO | $377.75 | $309–$481 | $370.34 | -2.0% |
| AMZN | $238.34 | $208–$275 | $259.77 | +9.0% |
| V | $343.09 | $297–$342 | $379.66 | +10.7% |
| MA | $513.60 | $471–$524 | $591.73 | +15.2% |
| NOW | $99.28 | $83–$136 | $147.99 | +49.1% |
| ORCL | $146.55 | $137–$247 | $149.12 | +1.8% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
91% of Polen’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (15 of 15 names, ~421 trading days). Market beta 1.18.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.